Opening Thoughts
Tonight we get a marquee matchup on Thursday night with both Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions feeling like they are the better team in the division. I look at my charts and calculations live with you as I post them one chart at a time (and have not looked at anything yet). To try and identify my initial bias beforehand, I know that these two played in GB already and Detroit dog walked them once. Detroit simply runs on everyone. The 2nd matchup of division matchups are usually lower scoring than the first matchup. Another note being that when the rivals are close in proximity, the lines tend to be wider than they should be. That knowledge is likely in my bias as we proceed. Lets go
Player Expectations vs Salary
In a surprising chain of events, we have our first look at how players have been used in the past 3 weeks and set it aside the salary to see where value is (above the trend line). Josh Jacobs being atop of this chart is actually wild, because I usually look for leverage against the bias of the field, and it seems Jacobs might be him from the start. If we go in expecting Gibbs/Montgomery to run threw Green Bay at home.. what if Green Bay gets revenge instead? Goff and Love are also decent usage values. Then we get a few more potential value plays at 4K and below as potential values for darts. Tim Patrick is someone I will keep my eye on. I have no idea who Chris Brooks is if he is playing tonight.
Vegas Spread and Totals vs Expectations
In Detroit, the line is only 3.5 as of this writing and that is interesting too. My sheet projects it should be 7 points in favor of Detroit based on their performance this far. However we know that division games are not like the rest. Last week, I think the Vegas expectations were off so I am not prepared to assume they get to these totals on a 2nd meeting. My gut feeling is leaning towards Green Bay keeping it close and potentially winning at the end as a leverage build. Keep in mind I will build a few looks too but this will be one thought on the surface.
Game Flow
Both teams happen to be top 10 rushing and top 10 passing. Green Bay is 5th in rushing DVOA which is surprisingly closer to Detroit than I initially thought. Detroit Passing DVOA is also top 10 which is a bit unexpected, meaning that IF Green Bay can flip the script on this game and capture an early lead, we could see Detroit do some passing tonight (potentially). That is not the first thought of most people building lineups Im sure.
Defense vs Receivers
Looking for passing options, Green Bay WR1, WR2 is going to be difficult to nail down. I believe Doubs is out so at least it is down to just 2, and they are average in coverage. Detroit passing is interesting because there is a wide funnel to the TE position, bringing LaPorta into the picture. Wr3 is interesting too, and I know Kalif Raymond aint it because hes on IR.
Directional Weaknesses in Passing
Detroit has a weakness on the left side of the defense while Green Bay has a bigger weakness on the right side of the defense, moreso in short passes meaning the Green Bay safety coverage is probably good.
WRs vs CBs
Most of the WRs seem to move around a bit on both teams. Reed is likely to run the slot routes for Green Bay vs Amik Robertson who grades poorly, and then that means Watson could see their weakest CB + their strongest WR a bit more. Perhaps Detroit even moves Carlton to cover Watson more often, but if so that opens up Wicks (perceived WR3).
Redzone Targets
Surprisingly Wicks has been used the most often in the redzone of all QB WRs lately, which means if Detroit slides coverage towards Watson, Wicks could be a touchdown scorer tonight. His price point + ownership will make a difference. With Patrick being in the dart zone, he has a small 1 catch projection, but being 4th in redzone priority makes me interested enough in chasing a touchdown in large field GPP.
How to leverage the Detroit stacks in Draftkings
Update: Gibbs or Goff capt make sense with a slight lean towards Gibbs as top projected captain for Detroit 4 stacks.
The captain spot favors Gibbs in captain for leverage right now. Goff also has some slight leverage at captain. Then we see 4 guys with points left on the table that can pair as well (minus Raymond). Goff has captain leverage over St Brown at half the ownership at captain. He has been the most efficient WR possibly in the league this year, going weeks without missing a target. Assuming St Brown stays the top owned captain play, lets think about how we might leverage the field against him if he underperforms?
Gibbs - he makes quite a bit of sense as a captain play with the Vegas total suggesting they will lead. He projects slightly better than Montgomery although either could end up leading whereas St Brown will likely play with Goff in stacks like last week.
Reed capt - Opposing WR1 as captain is something that goes contrarian to the expected St Brown domination tonight. That assumes Reed is the guy, but even less ownership with Watson if you believe he is the main WR to get work.
LaPorta capt - his ownership is projecting low at captain and this is a reach, but when LaPorta was out, St Brown usage went up earlier this season. What if the opposite happens here? This would likely lead to more unique lineup construction than the others but is also quite the stretch.
How to leverage the Green Bay stacks in Draftkings
Updated: could go Love but Josh Jacobs is my top leverage play today. Only one lineup but ehh.
The Green Bay side has Love and Jacobs as the captain leverage options, with 4 plays in the points left on the table. This takes away my strategy of leaning one direction, so if I play 3 lineups, I'd do a 4-2 stack for each team plus 1 3-3 stack down the middle, although lower owned side in GB is intriguing.
Optimal Lineup
Projections are leaning towards a 5-1 Detroit stack and it has a negative ROI projected, which means that I will likely need to boost guys in and some guys out. 1 thing Im quite sure on is I will not play St Brown captain tonight, as a stand I will take to be different. Whether or not it works out is to be determined.
Updated:
I hope to get an update before lock but it isnt guaranteed tonight! If not, good luck.
------------ignore below this point. Just some thurs-mon views for me---------------------
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