Its the final countdown. We need some takedowns on the year and I'm here for the twitter tags so LMK. The writeup is focused on finding what we can expect from the past few weeks of work, and see if we can project the pieces needed to win a tournament. Leverage is all about finding your way from the middle of the pack to the top, as playing what everyone else plays is only going to put you in the middle. Keeping in mind that being different doesn't require getting entirely away from the field, we will be strategic in our pivot process, one chart at a time. You pick the chart that speaks to you the most
Updated: 10:23am CST
Final Thoughts up front
Updated ownership on this chart only. After going through the entire slate, I see 2 plays that stand out with almost no ownership. Patrick Mahomes in a Cleveland game that many expect Jameis to shoot out, and DeVon Achane, who is one of the top usage plays on the slate in a game that folks are talking about playing. Mahomes will have either Hopkins or Worthy to go to opposite of Jeudy, and so I feel like he will find a way to hit these guys if needed. Kareeem Hunt also has a revenge narrative too, which he can catch as well. Achane is pricey but if eating chalk for cheap, why not pay up for a heavy winnable workload that no one else is on? It only takes 1 or 2 high end leverage plays to get you to the top of the leaderboard.
edit: Oh I forgot to mention Tyreek Hill is also low owned and up high for the WRs. He also is in the top projections for WRs, so plenty of ways to go between the 3!
Player Expectations vs Salary (last 3 weeks)
Peeking at the top corner first, where Mahomes, Bryce, Goff, and Murray all reside as players who have not reached their potential upside. Because of this, they are shorted in projections to their opportunity. I try to favor those guys going into the week unless they have a tough situation projected, but note that they are expected to land some plays and blow up soon if they make the plays that they have opportunity to make.
Top of the scatter plot is next, where Chase is just hanging out by himself. Hes playing for a contract so I think the big weeks can continue through this year until we hear of a double team. Burrow isnt far from him, but both being on the upper right means they are also expensive with upside. Mahomes, Tua and Bryce and Allen are the top tier workloads lately.
For non QBs, Achane, Mcbride, and Chase Brown all float the highest. Moving left I see value in Njoku. Moore (maybe) and Ertz when it comes to their price and opportunities. This is all unrelated to their upcoming matchup btw, but we will get to those.
Vegas Expectations vs My Projected Team Totals
I not only try and estimate the score, but also, which teams and game environments have the opportunity to exceed their expected totals, as thats the winning factor to team targets and even game stacking. Cincinatti vs Tennessee projects to be the highest total without regards to weather. If its the afternoon hammer I will potentially build that stack to some degree, but I'm not so inclined to play Will Levis ever again, even against a bad defense. I also note that Dallas and Carolina is the 3rd highest total with a tie score. Maybe we see overtime? That'll be pretty cool if I projected that.
Game Scripts
Sorted by pace, the Chargers face a funnel defense in the highest paced game expectations of the day. Baker also throws at a high rate, which means we should expect ownership and points here as long as they are efficient. Kansas City pass defense ranks 32nd in DVOA which is absolutely wild how far they have fallen. The Giants should also be in a heavier passing situation than usual, but who is their QB?
Projected Optimal Lineup for Draftkings (coming soon..)
The optimal based on projections looks like this. I am looking at a couple pieces of it. 1. Herbert did produce a stack in the optimal unforced, but it is to his TE so that is interesting. 2. Herbert's odds of reaching his target score of 28 is quite low based on what he has done this year. 3. Anytime you see double TE, it is likely a hint that value plays in the projections are not very good. That is an issue with my system, that when one player replaces another, like a running back, I have to manually boost them to projection that I feel is realistic, and that ends up being missed at times (like last week's RBs).
Projections
This is my top 5 projections for every position as we level set. The name of the game is to figure out what you like, what the field likes, and where it is safe to be different. I'm surprised Herbert isn't on the list for top projections for starters. Instead its Baker so that is something to watch. Chase Brown being the top over Barkley is interesting to say the least. Nabers vs the Ravens could be something but I'm not buying that with the QB. Jeudy on the other hand will be interesting. Njoku we did mention too. Essentially the Chiefs pass defense is opening a door for Winston to go off if this is fair weather. Finally, the Ravens and Chiefs lead in my top 5 defenses. In an effort to limit the number of pieces I have to figure out per lineup, I'm likely playing one of those 2 top defenses as seen.
Summary of Positive Game Situations
This is a summary of the situations that grade out well. I try to find the situations with the most positive trends here when hand building. For example, Denver is a top scoring team ahead, and Bo Nix is in a top QB situation, AND Bo is a top usage player. All that indicates that Bo Nix may be a good starting point if you can figure out pieces of that game to help him produce a top score. Otherwise he is a rusher himself.
Defense vs Receivers
Mapping the WR1 vs WR2 vs WR3 on each team may be the toughest thing I do each week, and quite frankly could be incorrect at times. Leave a comment on any that are off and I'll try to update it. Otherwise they have direct impact on the projections and explain why some player project better than others. Nabers going against the Ravens who rank 32nd of 32 teams against covering WR1, so he has to have some consideration. I like situations where there is a funnel like the Jets Garrett Wilson or Tyler Conklin over WR1. Adams is elite enough to where I dont trust that but that is the idea.
My Simulated Player Results
These players are all simulating as potential good value for their projections. I will add in the projected salary and points needed for this week.
If the goal is 200 points, one thing to note is that 28 points for the QB is the goal, which eliminates several QBs this week. Salary suggests paying upwards on RB and then QB this week, while finding WR value and TE value. Who fits these categories?
QBs
If I combine the QB situations, the sims, and all things considered, I have my 3 top contenders for QB this week. Mahomes, Mayfield, and Nix as my favorite options. I feel that you can see the reasoning throughout the writeup and naturally, all 3 of them seem to be against what the chalk is expected to do. I would say that finding a WR that projects well is the next step to solidifying which RB is the ultimate best play, as most likely they need a WR to carry a stack through. None of these 3 QBs have a pair in my top 5 WRs.
If I look a step down to others in this price range, I see Herbert, Goff, and Murray are next up, which interestingly brings St Brown as a contender and Goff above the trend line for value. Tre McBride appears in the top TE list for Kyler Murray (who i forgot to circle), and Herbert doesnt have a match. Therefore I think Jared Goff may be in play if we think he has a ceiling of 28 or more points this week.
RBs
Knowing Chase Brown and Achane are up top of this chart makes me want to consider one or the other in any lineup. Hubbard is also flying high for value at his price, but the percentage indicates he might be the chalk. I will look more into ownership tomorrow though for pivot potential. Barkley and Henry look a bit overpriced for their workloads.
WRs
We talked about Chase, but I notice that Tyreek has also climbed back up top here. I dont know much about David Moore but I do know he was up there last week too, when Thielan got all the work. Shepard is also showing a potential value play for his workload and price.
TEs
McBride is the top guy but Njoku is interesting if he stays low owned. Ertz is also looking like a potential value, with Noah Gray out there ready to vulcher touchdowns at any time too.
Top Owned Plays
As of this morning, Hubbard is far above the field in projected ownership, with the top 4 spots going to RBs in the 6K/low 7K range. Arizona and Cincinnati players seems to be where folks are going the most often. With such a high concentration on Hubbard, is he the clear cut pivot? Next section we can try and look at why there is such high ownership on these players first to understand which pivot makes the most sense, if any.
How do we leverage the top ownership?
In order to leverage the ownership, it is wise to first understand why someone is highly owned and what your reasons to fade the player should be. Highly owned players are sometimes in winning lineups- even the milli maker. If we haven't learned anything else this year, we have to understand that ownership alone cant be the reason we pass on a player, especially in the RB position. So what I did here is I looked at 4 different metrics; (projections, team totals, rushing defense DVOA rank, and then my RB algorithm to help project which teams can find rushing success this week, and related it to the expectations chart. Each circle indicates a reason I see that a RB is showing as chalk this week. Starting with Hubbard the top owned RB in projections, he is one of the higher usage RBs on the slate, his team total projects as one of the top 5 team totals on my chart, and Carolina is facing a bad run defense. Those are three convincing reasons to play any RB. One thing of interest is that he does not project very well and therefore we have at least one reason to not play him.
Who benefits the most if Chuba fails?
Chase Brown - if the projection accuracy is the reason he fails, the top projection actually goes to a similarly priced Chase at half the ownership, who has a higher game total than Carolina. Paying up is more difficult than paying down when pivoting and it is noteworthy that Chase is also a top owned RB, but anytime you get half the ownership in a pivot, that helps me feel good about it.
Rico Dowdle - the Opposing RB in the game with half the ownership just happens to be facing the worst pass defense on the chart. Most lineups playing Chuba are not likely to play the opposing RB with him. Rushing tends to run the clock out quicker, producing less plays and opportunity for the other team. Dowdle also makes sense if you believe in ->
Dallas Defense - who seems to have more of their players back healthy. Granted they just played Monday, the 49ers didnt look so great vs this defense, granted their 3rd string RB was in there in a rain game.
Bryce Young - and the passing game are also viable when looking back at his usage over the past few weeks. He is one of the top candidates at his price point in the same game environment, if you do not believe in Dallas defense.
Other RBs in the price range - there are a few guys who appear to be going overlooked at the RB position; Devon Achane is the highest usage on the chart, and also in position to put points on the board through rushing boosts; Gibbs/Montgomery both appear low owned in a very big game this week; Alvin Kamara, usually the chalk king but has finally dropped in ownership while he is in a good spot, and then deep dart Tyrone Tracy - facing a tough Ravens defense at 1% ownership but still has high usage.
If you made it this far, give me a like or thumbs up to help show the value of the content. Thanks!
Been reading your write ups for my lineups this year! Appreciate the work you do!