This is the last slate of the year and it will not be easy. With a short prep ahead, my thoughts are that we will see some chalky plays ahead. Understanding that some of that chalk is good chalk is key because we will have several plays in unknown territory, several weather impacted games, and several teams not playing for anything down the stretch. This is possibly the smallest main slate we've seen in a while - only 8 games, 16 QBs, etc. I am in the mindset of absorbing as much upside as possible, so lets find it.
Salary vs Potential Points (last 3 weeks)
The weekend games so far have been quite a mess, but that has also removed quite a bit of playable pieces from the board from the top. Next up? Josh Allen as the top overall usage on the slate with Davante and Nabers beneath him. If any of them have winnable matchups, I'm likely to gravitate that direction. Rodgers and Darnold appear to be in the QB zone with both their WR1s towards the top of this chart. Then followed by several TEs plus Wicks, Pittman and McMillian on the cheap value usage side of things.
Vegas Projections
This section may be a bit less useful than usual due to weather concerns everywhere. I see the highest Vegas total is supposed to be Minnesota vs Green Bay. My sheet says that the Buffalo vs Jets game is it, but that game has expected 20 MPH winds and rain. Philly would be next up except Hurts is out, and the impact of that is an unknown but Vegas has the game total severely less than I do (Lamb is out too, and definite rain). Then finally Tampa also playing in the number 3 game total with definite rain and Chuba out. Overall, when expecting low totals, dome games and work load might be more important than normal touchdown scorers. The Vikings game and the saints game are the only two dome games we have (without rain).
Game Script
Taking a peek at rankings, one of the better rankings that I can see is with Darnold's passing situation at home vs the Packers, in a meaningful game. Minnesota has actually given up the most fantasy points to receivers.
Defense vs Receivers
Here are the list of situations for passing that may be favorable based on scheme and personnel. Adams and Wilson are in good spots vs Buffalo. Bowers and/or Tucker could be good options for the Raiders.
Optimal Lineup
I believe this lineup was slightly tampered after updates so its not quite the default, but what I am seeing is that 1. the cheap RBs are impacting this; because they are difficult to project in my system. That leads to pay up RBs. Secondly the Jets and Tampa are plays that were in the default but it seems that was impacted by Darnold going in and Mason Rudolph coming out of it. If I feel good about a value play, I'll boost that play and rerun this (which might be Tajae).
Summary of Situations
These are the situations I will reference as we go position to position, and also what bake into the projections. One thing I have to call out is that Tennessee gets a rush boost today from my system, making Tajae appear as good chalk. Carolina here but with no Hubbard, I will pass on that. Cleveland and Minnesota are intriguing too.
Player Projections
Left side is our top plays, right side is our top value list per position. First, the Colts project as my top defense. Unless there are key injuries, I'm going to ride and die with the Colts today, no questions asked. The defensive finder has been too good to me this year and I have little reason to otherwise doubt it at this point. The might be the highest owned and therefore Jaguars would be the next best thing.
On the surface, Baker to Mike Evans looks like the thing to do for points. The issue here is the ownership that comes with it may pigeon hole a lineup construction that leaves little wiggle room for other pieces. Maybe Aaron Rodgers or Josh Allen as they face each other. Rodgers seems to want to go out on a high note this season so I wont be surprised if he tries.
Sims
Interestingly the sims suggest that this will be a low scoring week, and also seems to hint at paying down across the board on average. It seems that we will definitely want a QB with 25 pt potential as everything else seems a bit low this week.
These players sim'ed the most.
QB
Ok so the goal post is a bit shifted this week because Josh Allen is way over the field here. I think theres merit to paying up for him in some bits of logic. I may do that for an entry. There is also reason to fade (broken hand, lack of need to play him, etc). We need 25 pts out of the position and if Josh Allen doesnt go off himself, then the two risks are Baker and Darnold who project better than Rodgers. I'm going to give the old man a try today with his low ownership projection, in what appears to be a passing situation.
RB
We have the ability to pay up for someone like Barkley with the top projection. The issue is that by doing so, you are joining in on an uncertain situation where Barkley sees more stacked defensive boxes with Pickett vs Hurts today. I wont let that stop me from playing Barkley, however I want to consider the other top projected RBs here, who can get 20 points. Tajae Spears is in that realm of possible playable chalk. If he busts at 39%, it doesnt kill you unless 2 other plays reach 30 to 40 points. One situation I will call out that I dont quite understand is why Bucky is showing as the chalkiest play. Rashad White has had more work than Bucky and Tajae the past 3 weeks. Sean Tucker is also in the backfield for a 3 way split. What am I missing here? That is someone Im likely to fade.
WR
When it comes to volume, I see a path to playing Adams as a lock being the top of this page. Not a ton of ownership projected for him or Wilson, and I may just build for both in my initial Rodgers build. I circled the guys who have single digit ownership at the top, granted QB situations and weather may be impacting some of their ownership. I underlined the WRs who have a QB throwing to them in a good situation.
TE
Bowers looks like he is going to project the best for me, but unless I have extra salary I am going to take my chances on someone like Chig instead, maybe even Kincaid for single digit ownership.
Top Chalk and Most Ownership
This is how things are shaping out up top for ownership. Tampa and Minnesota essentially is the most wanted team pieces amongst the field. Where did the field get things wrong? My prediction is that Bucky is the bust of the day. Too many things can go wrong there IMO, with 3 RBs and a WR chasing a 1000 yard season. The chalk I align with the most is actually going to be Spears which is not an easy pill to swallow.
Top Leverage
There is a chance that one or two of these guys end up in the winner as they are underowned for their odds of reaching the target on this slate. Who is it going to be? I know I am going to build a Josh Allen lineup next now that I see where he falls on this slate. Otherwise good luck!
-----------------------------------------------------
Showdown for Sunday Night
Salary vs Expectations
Jayden looks like hes way above the field in expectations, ownership and price. Could be a candidate for captain but would recommend a low owned dart if so. Dont know if Woerner is playing but maybe hes a candidate.
Vegas Totals
The line looks like what I project, but I have washington exceeding their team total/going over if weather isnt a factor.
Defense vs Receivers
Both teams have a path through WR3, which is tough to really pinpoint. THen Atl through TE and Washington through WR1 - McLaurin.
Atl Leverage
Almost any play for Atl seems to have leverage for Atl at captain because they are al bad flex plays. I have interest in Ray Ray or the Kicker in flex here. Kyle Pitts is also hanging out there as possible but I dont want more than 2 plays here (maybe 1).
Was Leverage
I see leerage specifically on Brian Robinson at captain here. It could also be with Jayden Daniels but that will require a deep leverage play imo because of the high ownership. I would definitely prefer 4 or 5 plays from Washington.
Optimal Lineup
Good luck!