Come 2026 I will likely be wondering what my sheets would have looked like for this slate. For whatever reason it is a Saturday and Sunday slate without the Baltimore game on it. Will try and add the Saturday only visuals too but its just for reference, not much analysis with all the weirdness of the inactives and meaningless matchups. Some guys may start and only play a snap like Josh Allen so I dont want any part of it. Play the chalk and find a few WR pivots is my recommendation.
Key Player Contract Incentives
Mike evans needs like 85 yards - maybe 5 catches for 3 mill
Geno needs like 186 passing yards to get 2 mill
Sutton needs 82 yards for 500K
Pollard needs 83 rush yards for 250k, 2 tds for another 250k (spears is out)
Dobbins needs like 58 rush yards for 150k
Barkley 100 yards off the record for rushing yards in a year (assumed out)
Nabers is 2 catches behind the rookie wr record, and another 4 behind the overall rookie record by bowers
Ertz 9 catches, 90 yards 2 tds = 750k more than he made last week
Hopkins needs a td for 500k
Baker = yards per attempt top 10 gives him half a mil
MVS - 1 td for 250k
Salary vs Expectations
Jayde and Flacco up top in terms of QB value. St Brown and Nabers up there for WR. Chase Brown and Gibbs for RB, Laporta and McBride in TEs. Ownership going to the Detroit matchup.
Vegas
Only one game projects over 50 pts so that explains the chalk nature of it - Detroit/Minnesota. My end projects ATL/Buf/Phi/Tampa over 30 with Washington vs Dallas over 50 game wise. Most teams are sitting folks so clearly not expecting those projections to work out. Atlanta could be interesting though since Vegas has that total high too. For what its worth I have Detroit winning in line with the Vegas line.
Summary of Metrics
Some names like Mahomes aren't playing but since i have no data for Wentz in the past 3 weeks, we can assume Wentz situation for passing is 'OK', even against a bad defense. It means the key indicators say he should be passing, whether successful or not.
Simulated Plays
Not putting weight in this if building anything this week.
Even the totals, but want to review it afterwards. I may go for top end RBs though.
Defense vs Receivers
This may still be relevant in terms of weakness.
Projections
I will say that Baker being atop of this list is interesting, as I believe him and Evans are both chasing something in contract incentives.
Optimal Lineup
A slight preview to something to come in the future. I've been working on a site to display my optimal on the web, which opens up the possibility of others using my optimizer and my projections to crunch their own lineups.. This is not the week to rely on projections but figured I'd use this opportunity to show the site itself. I highly doubt i put a Flacco lineup together today but interestingly a stack formed with him and Downs, around pieces I like.
Top projected ownership
I am inclined to play the passing offense for ATL but not really sure I pull the trigger on that.
------------------------------Saturday Only---------------------------------
Salary vs Usage
2 game AFC North matchup where Burrow is likely to go out and try and prove a point by scoring a lot of points towards the MVP voting, while blaming the Chiefs for sitting players. Oddly if the Bengals had beaten the Patriots in week 1, they wouldnt be in the position they are in. Nonetheless, Burrow has the top potential usage followed by 3 of his guys so it is difficult to see a path to winning without at least 2 Bengals in the lineup, if not 3. This could be the last time Chase and Higgins see the field together with Burrow so which ones gonna go off? They need the game just for the hope factor of making the playoffs so lets see how that works out. Also noting that Chase Brown is questionable with a mild high ankle sprain.
Vegas Projections
All 4 teams have reason to show up today.. well 3 of the 4 teams do. The Browns are likely to get run out of town as I project them to get a touchdown at best. I think fading the Browns makes the most sense although they will be low owned and therefore no real gain in doing that. The 2nd game though in general projects to be a better game so maybe thats where the edge is.
Defense vs Receivers
Interestingly if Burrow is to have a good game, he faces a defense that is top 10 against WR1 and WR2. That helps Gesicki project well, but given the narrative I presented, perhaps he forces it to them anyways. I dont know if the Ravens put up 30 and then sit starters, but perhaps Flowers is interesting today.
Projections
Lamar up top is no surprise. Burrow has the best odds of reaching the needed score for this slate. Wilson has the best chance of reaching value on this slate vs the Bengals.
Sims
This slate has the potential of scoring better than the larger slate, maybe because the Ravens were not on it. However I see paying up at QB and then RB is the ideal path today. 30 point target means you probably need to play Lamar today, although I show that Burrow also has 32 pt ceiling potential so he is in play too. WRs likely need to score better per play as well than RBs although cheaper WRs are what we have to pay attention to.
Here is the landing space. Note that Warren is viable but i only project 1 RB per team.
Summary
So the interesting piece of this slate; is that I project Pittsburg to give Cincinnatti problems potentially yet ownership is landing on Cincinnatt. Burrow can do things, but we have to find a path to an edge somewhere right? What if, the Bengals get stopped in the passing game or fall behind early? That gives the Pitt run game more opportunity and more clock control, which is something the Bengals dont do well. Having a Pitt runner + pitt DST is something that could be it, but i do suspect the Bengals to still score way more points than the Browns. So maybe we want other pieces.
Optimal
This is how the optimal shapes out for me. It has a little leverage on it, but also some questionable decision points in there.
Baltimore vs Pitt Salary vs Expectations
Top side usage is on Jeudy. The measurement is based on his target share, but are those catchable targets today? That is going to be tough to believe in. Atkins and Foreman all have opportunity to speak of for cheap. I see Lamar and Henry towards the top otherwise. Lamar has flex leverage today, but if playing him at captain, I'd consider a Walker for a low owned pairing to make that leverage work.
Baltimore Leverage Spots
Updated: Zay Flowers is gonna be my favorite captain today now that I've updated.
So we have Lamar or Flowers or Ravens DST or Andrews as our potential captain plays. With Cleveland being disoriented, theres just no way to say I am interested in more than 1 or 2 Cleveland plays today. So I'd suggest this may be a Jackson captain day. Ravens DST would only be something if I can use all the salary at captain. Justin Tucker could get some work in the flex too after sucking for a while. I think historically Lamar has not played all that well vs Cleveland DST so maybe a chance to take a shot elsewhere.
Cleveland Leverage Spots
Jeudy or Zappe would be high leverage at captain but Zappe is only playing part of the game i think.
Zappe captain is leverage. Just not something I will do. Foreman, Moore, Atkins, Hopkins or Woods all show as leverage in the flex. Normally I'd say that all the opportunity seems to be on the Cleveland side for a 4 stack but I do not believe they will do much today if trusting my Vegas projections.
Optimal
5-1 Ravens makes sense to me. I may run this lineup in cash games.
Bengals vs Steelers
Welp top guy being Burrow means Ill lock him in a spot in my lineup as most people will. Chase, Chase, Higgins ae most expensive and still above the next closest Steeler, Wilson. Friermuth and Gesicki in the open dead zone. Then a few TE longshots in the dart zone (grandy and pruitt).
Bengals Leverage
Seems like our guy today will be Higgins. It appears that Chase is out, so Herbert in the flex is also looking important. Add Burrow to the mix and you now have unlocked 3 pieces of a solid coreIMO. Gesicki is also showing flex leverage otherwise with a solid projection. Not sure if that will stack well with Higgins or its an either or thing. Iosivas also projects pretty high for WRs.
Steelers Leverage
What is interesting here is that I can make a case to play 4 Steelers in this game based on the points left on the table. I will shoot for something like that in one of my 2 builds as I do want to see what happens if the Bengals are upset or in a higher scoring game than anticipated. Pickens or Warren show as top leverage right now at captain for the Steelers. There is flex leverage just about everywhere else which makes them viable if we think they keep it close.
Optimal
4-2 Bengals is what the optimal is saying is the way, although this has negative ROI too. Lets see how to swap things around to