We have a solid 5 weeks of data to work with so lets make it work.
QBs
Josh Allen is now levitating above the field of QBs with respect to expected points at the position. You can go leverage with Mahommes or Jackson at the price but honestly hes in a good spot (and so is Diggs).. Infact you lose some value in Mahommes and Jackson although upside is always there with them.
Murray, Burrow and Lawrence are all the otherwise best values. I want to play Geno personally because of the situation and his high usage in the offense, but will think that one through based on his price comparison. Lawrence stacks kinda make sense on update if you want to leverage the Geno crowd. No Marvin Jones so that is intruiging for upside on the WR if he does go off.
RBs
I like this chart in particularly for QBs and RBs. that is, usage is king for those positions over finding the right plays. And let me tell ya, Mixon is getting usage. I like the ownership, i like the expectations of points. Just need to make sure I like the matchup, as their bad oline causes his opportunity to dip when they get to Burrow.
Breece Hall apparently is still too cheap and underowned. Barkley, Kamara and Fornette are also looking good. Again, worth looking at who they play to estimate if things can flow smoothly but that looks good enough. Eno is starting as well so light em up with the chalk IMO.
WR
WRs typically rely on external forces than usage in the offense, such as the QB play/protection and general game script. Trailing teams help that cause most times. We can still get an idea of where the usage flows. Diggs is my favorite WR this week. Chase and Tyreek appears to be leverage off him.
Zay, Meyers and Diontae might be good value if the situation is right.
TE
We do have Andrews and Kelce who can go off on anyone on the slate. However Higbee and Ertz are pretty cheap for their workload. Hurst and Freiermuth are also interesting. Infact I am seeing the Pittsburg passing offense on most of these charts. Choosing to ignore them but there are leverage opportunities if you like the deep low owned shots there.
Summary
My top game target is going to be a chalky AZ/SEA. Not afraid to go there on either side of the ball. Seems there could be a Lamar boost in the run game as well as to Murray so I will consider them both this week.
Vegas
Using the vegas team totals vs my calculated team totals, I am looking for individual team and game totals that can go over the implied total. It does not take into account injuries but we can see some teams worth investigation (Seattle/Arizona/Minnesota/Buffalo).
Projections
These are the top projected plays i have at each position. They will change between now and Sunday but they are good starting points to identify situations that may pan out.
DVP
Some QBs I will just mark off the board: ATL, Indy, New Orleans, and Cleveland. Seattle is borderline someone I can see myself fading down now in favor of Murray and the Arizona side. Both of these pass defenses in the bottom 3 so thats weird.
Check back on this article between now and Sunday if you want updates!
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