We have reached the halfway point roughly and while sad we havent had reports of anyone taking down anything yet, I feel like we are close. Its not just about getting the 1 player right, but getting the lineup to line up, so I hope to get some more of the pieces to do just that this week.
The writeup and analysis posted here is a first look for me at my own charts now that I've done the data gathering. At the very end, I will try and add a summary of players of interest in one spot. Lets go
Last Updated: Today 10:15 am CST
Bottom Line Up Front:
Top plays at each position will post here:
QBs: Baker, Love, Stroud, long shot Rodgers. Fading Nix
RBs: Henry, Walker, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, long shot R Stevenson, fade: Hall
WRs: Wilson/Adams, Diggs, London, Wicks, longshot -> Cooper, fading Hill
TEs: Schultz, Bowers, Kraft -> fading Otton and Njoku
The optimal lineup for me points to paying up for RB and possibly down for WRs, with the potential for double TE sets again. For details as to why I am here, keep scrolling.
Ceiling Finder
No matter what the sport, I always look at where I think a ceiling performance exists that is low owned. It can happen at any position really but i highlighted each position with an underlined for top owned and circled the highest of each position in terms of expectations. Plays are low owned and highly owned in projections for a reason. In the case of Baker, hes been living up to the name and cookin even in losses like MNF. In an interesting situation for him, I believe his pass catchers wil be unknown but yet highly owned at the same time, like Cade. Therefore pairing him may bring you more leverage than you know if his percentage stays low. JT is interesting but will definitely want to get an idea of game environments on all of these guys to decide the best pivot point.
Vegas Projections
Tampa vs Atlanta projects highest but this does not factor in injuries to their top WRs. If the replacements can make plays though, and if Atl can make the plays as expected, this could be interesting for upside and value. Green Bay vs Jacksonville may turn out well for the players in that environment as well. Other games will depend on whether or not each team projects to exceed their team totals expected.
Summary of Key Metrics
I like to browse this early on in my process to find the situations that matter the most towards my lineup. Since it spells out the situations, I will simply read it and refer back to it as I do a positional look at workload vs salary.
On second thought, one thing I will call out is that there are seemingly more good rushing situations this week than there are QB situations. If the QBs don't go wild, we could see low scoring like last week again, as that will trickle down to the other positions as well.
Defense vs Receivers
I am jumping to this particular chart before the positional breakdown, as I do want to know where the defenses might funnel to plays. This could also help us identify early pivots. If you have questions about this chart, drop them on twitter as I usually answer there. Some situations make for great funnels towards volume when only one or 2 positions are super weak but some quarterbacks don't get to move through their progressions in time to make the throws anyways so keep the QB score in mind. Its a score my system calculates and anything above 0 for that row is a good score (and the top QB situations from the summary chart).
QBs
These are the QBs projecting to have some form of neutral to positive leverage on the upcoming charts. We talked about Baker and I am OK potentially playing him in a lineup this week, with the unknown supporting his low ownership. If not Mayfield, Aaron Rodgers is also looking cheap. He might be interesting because his WR1 is also in a good spot, and unfortunately we dont know if that is truly Wilson or Adams this week, but it could be Adams.
RBs
The running backs have quite a few options. Mixon has been doing great but now contains 18% ownership for those who didnt take a shot with his sub 5% ownership. The super high consistent guys fall below the value line, but if you can find value elsewhere they are also low owned.
My sheet says that New England may have a boost to their run game this week, so just maybe theres a path to Stevenson in a Rodgers build if his workload as the Jets run defense isn't that good either. There are also paths to James Connor or Kyler Murray rushing in a touchdown vs Miami as well.
WRs
Garrett Wilson is definitely the top of this chart, and if it weren't for Adams stealing the spot at WR1, this would be a lock recommendation this week. He projects as a top play per the previous DVR chart but if Adams gets the workload, that changes everything for them. London is also a standout play for his workload, in a good environment for points. Outside of potential smash spots for a couple plays, this seems like the position to potentially get value from with several players moving up the depth charts this week due to injury. Some of which are rookies in WR1 positions.
TEs
Brock Bowers is the top TE this year and his workload shows that this past 5 weeks. His price is also up there, but one thing not quite up there is the ownership. At 6K and knowing that Otton is the chalk, just maybe this is the time to pay up at TE and not necessarily at WR in too many spots. 6K WRs are not usually the same as
Projections
These players are the top projected at each position this week. Sometimes the names dont necessarily hit but it is quite often helping point to the situation being good for someone on the team (Chase vs Higgins, etc ). Also noting the Bengals defense is on the list 2nd week in a row after returning a kick for a touchdown. Going against Philly offense is a difficult task to see panning out, but it should be noted that the offensive line is quite bad in Philly which is why their opponents are taking that top spot so often.
My Optimal Lineup
If just crunching directly on projections, this is the lineup it produces. Please note that you should never simply play an optimal lineup, especially in GPP as thats not how this works. However it may give you an idea of the type of build or core that makes sense. I see two TEs, cheap WRs, and pay up at RB for example.
Sims (experimental)
I'm likely not putting a lot of weight into sims this week because of the amount of change going into the teams but figured I'd show the lists anyways.
Leverage
To truly leverage the field, it is ideal to understand where the field is going. Right now, it appears that almost half of lineups will have Breece Hall, in a week in which RB is already strong IMO. So in this section, we will ask the following questions: "What if Breece Hall fails?", "How might he fail?", and "Who might benefit in the game/slate if he does fail so that our lineup moves up while the 47% move down?". In other words, who can we play that most Breece Hall lineups are likely not to play in order to get points?
Aaron Rodgers? - Breece does work out of the passing game, but it is possible that a Rodgers stack to a WR such as Wilson or Adams absorbs all of the touchdowns. The game script would be more likely if we think the Jets fall behind and need to pass to catch up down the stretch. I projected the Jets to score 3 TDs in this matchup so just maybe they all come through the air to kill the Hall value
Opposing RB/Stevenson: I mentioned in this writeup that Stevenson or whoever gets the work in New England might be in a good spot. If so, lineups playing New England's RB could be valuable as a means to move up when the Hall lineups stand still. This position could be paired with a Rodgers stack as a runback if you think the Patriots are able to keep the game close. The Patriots run and pass blocking looks to be in a negative environment so that doesnt not necessarily look good for Stevenson success. Infact I have the Jets defense in my top 5 today, which make this game environment difficult to trust. The good thing about potentially taking this path is that the Jets are the top owned defense on the slate, meaning Hall + jets defense is most likely played together, and points by Stevenson will move you up against both plays together.
Jets Backup RB/Allen? - The vulture touchdown is also possible with Braelon Allen. This situation more likely happens if Hall is hurt, as the usage has not really been there for Allen otherwise, so this method is only playable in the largest of field GPPs since it isn't likely.
New England Defense? - Is their game plan today built to stop the run? Interestingly the Jets have a neutral advantage in run blocking verses the run blocking so it is possible they stuff him, although the pass blocking seemingly good for the Jets today in this matchup. It is also a very thin play
Low Scoring game?
Breece Hall being 48% owned will fail if the points are not there, and so we can look at potential pivots. Literally anyone in the same price range will be lower owned. My top 5 projected are here so a simple fade might make sense here if you believe the Patriots will suck today:
Ownership ought to by updated this morning which can shift a lot of the plans. At that point, I will post my top plays at each position, so check back for those!
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