I decided that this week, I will build my lineup as I write this article because thats the only way I don't galaxy brain myself out of the plays that make sense on first look.
Updating: 9:25am CST
Ceilings
Last week, this view helped identify the Mahomes pivot off of Lamar. No one was sad if taking the red pill, so what do we have this week? Hurts is dominating the ceilings and he does make sense there. Hopkins very similarly projected and double the ownership. But what comes in that range with them all? Murray at almost half the ownership. Hopefully the leverage stays that way come Sunday. Onto the positional breakdown!
QB
We have talked about Hurts and Murray, the standouts in ceiling and ownership. They also standout in price as theres a huge jump to the next set. As of this writing, I have to say Taylor is intruiging at 1% projected ownership and that cheap in comparison to the top guys. With him back, Washington will actually start throwing towards Terry Mclaurin again and therefore score some points, so thats going to be my 3rd QB play to call out.
RB
RBs, I always go for the top guys and therefore Kamara and Henry are immediately in play. Jacobs broke the slate last week as chalk while Stevenson continues to do well on a bad team. With Breece down, its important to know that his workload shifting to Carter is more than enough to bring him into the value realm unless they do some weird splits. Pierce appears to be the best for value purposes, but all of these guys should have their matchups checked.
Looking at matchups at the oline dline level, I'm likely underweight on Kamara and Jacobs of the top tier. Less on Pierce as well.
WR
Hopkins is dominating in terms of opportunity in his average over the last 5 weeks, quite frankly because its a 1 game sample size. Either way, if he gets the same workload he is too cheap and underowned. Diontae Johnson is also interesting at his price point, as well as George Pickens. Basically in pittsburg, they are typically playing from behind, throwing the ball to these guys but not scoring tds yet, so their value is high. Deebo Samuel and Adam Theilan are also a lil lower owned in projections.
TE
No Andrews or Kelce on this slate so we get some raw energy in TE. Ertz, Hockenson, Higbee, and maybe even Brevin Jordan all look viable. Quite frankly its hard to tell where the chalk will go but whoever that is, I'm avoiding it. Ertz will be my favorite play of this list if his matchup is decent.
Vegas
Pace
It would seem that the game with the most pace upside this week would be Pittsburg/Philly so it is not surprise these guys project well this weekend. Pittsburg, Arizona, and Atlanta are all expected to play more snaps than usual.
Situation Summary
The summary view indicates that Murray may be one of my top owned QBs this week. Pace up, TE and WR pairing is in play. I will have lots of that stack most likely this week. I also see why Pollard is popular so I may eat that chalk.
Defense vs Receivers
While the names may not entirely align to the position, we can see where the holes are in the defense and start piling up touchdowns this way. For example, I think Zach Ertz will be my highest owned TE from everything i saw today.
Projections
It would seem that Tua to Hill projects well vs Detroit. Detroit hasnt been involving themselves in shootouts lately but maybe they will partake this week. Kyler to D Hop and Ertz is also very intruiging to me, especially if you can run it back with Minnesota aka Jefferson or something.
Bonus: Ownership vs Vegas
Which games have high expected points but lesser ownership? Arizona is 1st, Pitt vs Philly is 2nd, Washington vs Indy is 3rd, and then longshot SF vs LAR is 4th. I am going to consider going for all 4 of these games in some capacity.
Good luck!
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