We have crossed the halfway mark and I'm still looking for a GPP winner out here in the large field tournaments. If it isnt me, why shouldn't it be you?
Last week we saw so much chalk go off that if you optimized your lineup to be the chalkiest it could be, you would have scored 209 pts. That is quite depressing for someone like me who likes leveraging the field. I'm toying with the idea of allowing 2 low owned leverage plays in every lineup I build from now on, and also finding which chalk play(s) I dont agree with. That may bleed into this article.
Update: Sunday 11:10 am CST
Ceilings
Some of the same names we targetted last week are up top again (Hopkins and Murray, which were vastly overshadowed by Tua/Hill chalk). Seems targetable along with Herbert -> Ekeler. The guy sorta hanging out by himself these days (no pun intended) is Tom Brady. I haven't personally targetted him all year but its time we do something different I suppose. Will monitor his ownership and see what happens. Justin Herbert is also sorta floating up top as a QB but without his top 2 WRs. Ekeler hanging around with him though.
Update: I circled the chalk pivots that I think provide good leverage and underlined positional chalk. For example, if not playing Josh Allen, you could go to Tom Brady for less than half the ownership and cheaper. Or even Herbert and Tua who project well.
Potential Chalk Identification
These are the guys to keep an eye on. We learned last week that chalk plays can work out. What is good chalk? Bad chalk? Essentially thinking that ownership alone is not the answer to why you fade. It is usually ownership + some reason we have to uncover. I will reference this and later call out my fade calls of the week.
1st call of the week: To limit my chalk and get contrarian, I'm not playing a RB in the flex. I think the top lineup will have a WR or TE (likely WR) so that in itself may limit some chalk. I just don't like a lot of the oline vs dline matchups for the top guys. Usage does matter more than matchup most weeks but not in a chalk week imo. Nonetheless, to the positional!
QBs
I'm looking at this live as I write this and for Draftkings, Tom Brady and Fields make the best value per their usage and price. Josh Allen has the high ceiling too if you want to pay a premium price for him. Murray and Herbert are also interesting too. I dont necessarily like any of those guys on the surface but Burrow is showing as a potential leverage beneath the value line if you want to try that out.
RBs
Ekeler is towering over everyone with usage and Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are both out. This either means that Ekeler will blow up or get game planned out of this game ungracefully. Then there are four obvious looking plays in the middle, where Fornette looks solidly under owned just like Brady. Stevenson is going to be someone I also take seriously.
Someone I will take less seriously is my fade of the week. Travis Ettiene. Draftkings has him as 2nd most popular play. I dont - his blocking actually might not be there today vs the raiders. This comes back to bite occasionally so YOLO. He is in a good spot as a pass catcher but I'm favoring the true pass catchers on that team over him.
WRs
The upper tier WRs are interesting this week because there is a whole game of under owned Wrs - Tampa vs LA. I see lots of WRs at the upper and lower end of this board so perhaps there is a path to a shootout that we can game stack, with all these players who have sucked lately. Tyreek has the highest ceiling and usage of all WRs over the last 5 weeks so that should be noted. Evans Pittman and Theilahn showing up as lowest ownership.
TEs
Higbee and Conklin look to be the most viable plays at TE on the first look.
Vegas
ATL vs Chargers should shoot out except they are missing their top two WRs and that is not accounted for in my projected outcomes. GB vs Detroit will be popular but I am eyeing the Cincinatti game.
Oline vs Dline
The run blocking just doesnt align well vs the chalk plays this week so I'm not exactly sure how I attack this yet, but will defintely be a lil more contrarian this week than last. ATL run game stands out to me. Maybe back to Jacobs this week as well, now that he hurt so many feelings last week.
Defense vs Receivers
Things are shaping up well for Philly WR1 and WR2, which makes me like the ideal of Devonte tonight. Hurts only threw 4 tds last week and most of that went to AJ Brown. I know Hurts isnt tired because he only threw the ball 28 times to make that happen but perhaps this creates a squeaky wheel narrative. Both are def playable tonight.
Something else that caught my eye is that the Rams are ranked 30th and 30th vs WR1 and WR2. Gonna throw a lil Brady / Godwin/Evans stack out there just due to ownership and opportunity. Could run that back with ARob or Higbee as well.
Pace
The highest paced game of the week happens to be tonight. This leads me to the over
Summary
Burrow remains up top followed by an intruiging Heinicke. I do like Mclaurin so my lean is actually to that washington game for a stack. Then we have RBs vs each other in Detroit vs GB that appear to be in good spots. I favor the GB running backs like most will. I also like to pair WR options with QBs in good spots, which makes me like Evans a lil bit this week.
Projections
Why is Heinicke projecting so high? Its because Minnesota likes shootouts, and they give up a ton to WR1 which is perfect for a guy like Mclaurin who is fantasy relevant these days. If I am going there, its likely in game stack structure. I'm also going to go ahead and say that I'll be playing Jacobs this week again and hoping for the best. Stevenson looks a lot better when you see the Patriots defense in the top, as that could lead to more opportunity to him even in a bad blocking situation.
Thanks for visiting my site and good luck!
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