I am a bit behind this weekend but will do a single writeup in the morning. For now, placeholding the images I have based on the data points I have. Will analyze them in a walkthrough later.
Bottom Line Up Front
The goal of this week is to find leverage points in a week where the ownership is spread thin in most areas. Value is seemingly weaker at RB leading to a funnel to Chase Brown ownership. I am OK with cheap chalk as opposed to expensive chalk so I wont rule him out of my build, but I am going to try not to galaxy brain myself out of a win this time.
My Favorite Plays Position by Position: QB Dak Prescott
RB D'andre Swift
WR Ceedee Lamb
TE Bowers, Laporta
Guys I'm less interested in playing:
Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Geno Smith
Ceiling Finder
To start the weekend, I am running through the workloads across the board and underlining the top chalk at each position projected as well as circling the highest workload play with single digit ownership. The cool thing about this exercise is that it naturally points to a potential Lamar stack to Andrews going under owned. Most of the QB ownership is quite thin this week, and while I'm unsure if he's in a good spot this week or not, at least I know there is an angle with high ceiling that few people are taking.
Looking at the skill positions, the guy who scares me the most is Puka. He had a knee injury this week, and hes playing. And when he randomly plays he can put up a monster game. If not him, I circled the range of single digit owned skill players to review. Javonte Williams seemingly slept through last week so maybe hes rested up for a big game vs baltimore? Then we dont know what Baltimore will do with Diontae but no one is playing him and thats interesting unless hes announced as super limited. Chase is potentially a nice pivot off of Chase Brown if paired with Burrow.
Vegas Projections vs My Projections
Ideally we can build a story based on teams I project higher than their vegas expectations, even if it doesn't play out entirely that way. These teams are target worthy based on 3 TD expectations + being over expectations:
Atlanta, Denver, Buffalo, Carolina, New Orleans, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Detroit, Washington, Tennessee and New England.
Summary of Situations
I have a feeling that we will want to target game stacks this week as we build lineups. QBs are kinda evenly spread in ownership this week and while we have some chalk at RB, everything else is seemingly unclear amongst the field.
These situations above may help navigate which teams have the most correlated situations to the points as we proceed.
Rams vs Seattle and Cincinatti vs Vegas appear to have some of the chalkier pieces. Baltimore vs Denver is going a little lesser owned with decent expectations from that game. I dont know if Baltimore will exceed their projected total or not but it is tempting to at least take Denver pieces.
Defense vs Receivers
I am going to reference receivers in good spots as we hit the next few charts for leverage. First thing I notice is that WR1 is in a good spot in many of these games, so it is possible that many of the top WRs find their way to the endzone this week. Or at least that is why ownership is spread thin.
QB
I'm looking for high quality but low owned QBs. Interestingly Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, and Derek Carr all show low owned value in the position. No one is intersted in Jordan Love either. If any of these teams have WRs who project well, they immediately become stack contenders. Infact Kamara could end up being highly owned, and seeing that New Orleans has an easy matchup, I'd imagine that playing Kamara with Carr might help negate the lineup ownership a little bit. Baker and Otton would have worked out last week that way. The blue dots means that there is extra leverage on the play, so Goff is leverage but so risky with low passing lately.
RB
What I see here is that Kamara is actually over-owned since he was filtered off this view. Walker and Swift appear to be the top workloads in this space. Based on the summary of situations you could make an argument to play both. Dallas actually has a boost to the rushing game this week but none of their RBs are showing as leverage.
Tank Bigsby is unowned but something of interest I must mention is that the Jaguars DST pressure the QB the 4th most on the slate and the Eagles give up the most pressure, which means that IF (big IF) they are able to get to Hurts, the Jags RBs could get more looks. Not saying it will happen but I have to call that out for a long shot GPP for a buck.
WR
Diontae Johnson looks like a clear unowned piece here and I think its due to not knowing how much he is going to play if at all. Definitely need to hear news today as far as that is concerned. Ceedee is always getting garbage time points. He seems to be the high end play with Nabers. NFC East is heavy on volume with their primary weapons over the past 5 weeks. I will name Ceedee as my top WR play today.
When I try and filter to only QBs in good situations from the summary, I get to this list of spots, although there are several others where the WR1 is in a good spot like Sutton and Zay Flowers for single digit ownership.
A little deeper look into it, we can see which WRs will align to which cornerbacks the most often - in the event they have advantages. Seattle is down 2 pass catchers but 2 of them remaining are in good spots. Philly, Detroit, Atlanta, and Buffalo all make this list a bit
TE
National TE day has ended and therefore we have only a few weird spots for leverage Juan Johnson might be something of a pivot spot to the Kamara ownership with Carr back. Sam Laporta is also in a good spot but his workload has also been low for the price. Bowers, Parkinson (if Puka is limited), and otherwise punting is in play here. The optimizer gave me double TE so maybe two of the names here pan out.
Projections
This week, I am adding in the value based data on the right side, as in these top 5 lists are sorted based on the plays projecting for the most value at each position in my system. An interesting dilemma to note is that both Hurts and Geno Smith look like they are in good spots, yet the top 2 DSTs are also projecting against them. Philly has been terrorizing the top DST for weeks because of the driving factor I use in pass protection. However I think Hurts is quite tough to take down lately despite his protection holding up.
Lineup Targets
We want to find a path to 207 points and to get there we will need enough players to exceed their value in our lineups to get there. The bottom shows the average salary projected for each position in order to make those ranges happen.
Sims Value
I sorted out the sims to reflect who produced the most chances at reaching value for each position. Kirk is in an interesting game today, but neither his receivers nor himself made top 5 in projection lists for me. Therefore I am more tempted to begin my first build with Dak, who does fit the salary range and easily pairs to Ceedee.
Optimal Lineup
The optimal lineup shows Geno as the recommended captain, but due to his negative leverage, I am more likely to pass on him in any single entry lineup I build today. Swift looks good in projections and chances to make value so I may keep him in my lineup.
Leveraging the Slate
Cincinnati and New Orleans have the highest owned pieces coming up today. We shall keep in mind that cheap chalk is OK to play in good spots. I dont even know who the backup RB is for Chase Brown so I wont necessarily say this is a play I avoid entirely. However this segment is about playing a poker hand against the field. What can we do if we do not play Chase? or what if we dont play Kamara? Or like last week, what if we play neither?
The ways Chase might fail:
Injury: Then the backup RB takes over and the play is dead. I simply dont take that angle because we cant predict that.
Passing Game: Burrow to Chase is not taking on much ownership, with Higgins out. Maybe 15% total ownership? And the runback of Bowers or Meyers is there, while Gesicki (on this list) is also cheap chalk so you can get off 2 plays. I cant even say that fading Gesicki makes real sense because they inactivated 2 other WRs with Higgins.
Opposing RB or DST? It is very thin but Cincinnatti isn't a good run defense. Just maybe you find value on the other side. If passing is going to fail, just maybe the Raiders defense come to Cinci and win. That would be awesome if you know how much I dislike Cincinnati as is but not likely (even though the Bengals havent won at home all year).
Other value outvalues him?
Ettiene is back so going to him is very thin. However I added 3 potential pivots based on their workloads. Chase will have more workload today than he appears here but these other guys all have a path to match.
The ways that Kamara might fail:
Passing game: Derek Carr ownership is under 5%. The issue here is that Olave is the 3rd highest ownership here. However there may be a path to playing a TE as that is the weakest spot for the Carolina defense to cover. Juwan, his backup or even Taysom may make sense
Opposing RB: Chubba Hubbard outscores him from the other side of the game? Honestly I cant quite get there, BUT New Orleans is one of the worst run defenses in DVOA so its not dead. Carolina is tricky with the rookie starting again, but that is the more likely event.
Another high priced RB outscores him? I have 4 guys projecting higher than Kamara
That is the visual where we can find them pivot points, but really any of them in this view are way less owned.
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