We have 3 games to choose from in the island game spectrum this week, and somehow either the Jets or Giants continue to get this special air time so that we can all see how bad they are I guess. Either way, bad teams produce money in Draftkings too, so the goal today is to find it in search of the under owned and ignored plays. I'll be updating this post to include data for Sunday night and Monday night as well as the time gets closer. Lets go
Tampa Bay vs Kansas City Chiefs
This is the final installment of the Week 9 island game series, with Monday night football in a rainy KC. It is 2pm and rain has begun, and not likely to let up til sometime tonight. Who does a soaked field benefit the most?
Updated: Post inactive news 6:35
Odds and Situations
Crazy to say but Baker's usage is pretty much off the chart this year. I think they told him it doesnt matter whether or not you turn the ball over; just keep on throwing and running til you cant. So hes by far the most used player. Id love to see how he has performed in weather, as Tampa seems like a rainy climate. Then we get a bunch of Chiefs before seeing Otton and Irving as pairing pieces. On the cheaper side, we get Sean Tucker and Jarrett if you decide to go stars and scrubs. Hopkins is in unknown land as we can't safely say his workload as WR1, WR2 or WR3. That can impact projections on both sides actually.
Vegas Projection
Grain of salt score projection especially in the rain, but I had the Bucs covering in a super high scoring game in normal conditions. I also would have the Chiefs putting up more points than they have all season. Sitting like 15 minutes away from the stadium, I can tell you it is a factor today, and injuries likely factor here too.
Game Scripts
I havent peeked at these lately but have been seeing some interesting stuff with regards to the run game. KC has been better against the run than Tampa. Not only that, they seem to have some advantages at the oline vs dline level in rushing. Lets see how that goes if passing is more difficult tonight. The Bucs have an estimated passing TD rate of 72% of their scoring tonight.
Defense vs Receivers
I see both TEs having some path to success although surprisingly again, the Chiefs have been better against the TE position as the year has gone on while the Bucs have gotten worse. I am also noting that the pass environment is better for the Chiefs than Bucs (without weather considered).
Snap Counts
Seems that Hopkins played 1/3 of snaps in his debut. Quite a few players got to around 20 snaps last week so there is going to be a lot of uncertainty in how this one plays out. That is where leverage may matter and may kill the lineup too.
Optimal Showdown Lineup
Updated: It seems the WRs have consolidated to 4. Now they become a volume play. I'm going to play with this group and see what happens.
Some updates have pushed the ROI on this lineup to positive. I'll play it just to track it but def think it needs at least 1 or 2 swaps somewhere to make it a winner.
KC Stacks
Updated: Chiefs defense is only leverage at captain so I am leaning away from that.
Updated: It seems that Kelce or Kareem are the most viable at captain tonight for leverage. Mahomes has some but he is owned too high for me to touch that. He would get there however if he rushes a touchdown or two in, but why do that in the rain?
We have our core in the points left on the table if stacking KC. Mahomes, Hunt and Kelce all seem like they could do well tonight. The one caveat I must mention tonight is that we do need to find leverage and my system says that we should fade Mahomes specifically as hes the top owned captain. So I will try to find an angle where he is not in the optimal and play it. The dilemma with that tonight is that he is in a good spot for passing production, so this is not a full fade by any means if I take that approach tonight.
TB Stacks
McMillian is out so.. no points left on the table for Tampa. They have 4 WR active that I can see, and one of their TE inactive. Screaming Otton captain for leverage now, but it will be thin. I think the defense should crunch these dudes for the most part.
Cade Otton could end up as an optimal captain with 6% ownership, so that is interesting. A fun fact: Rachaad White went to the same high school as me, and this is the first time I recall him playing here in Arrowhead in a meaningful role so just maybe he ends up more viable tonight than expected.
I see a very consolidated list of names here if stacking 4 from Tampa. Otton looks to be the top captain option if so, . There could be a path to getting Otton, Baker, maybe Bucky (or deep dive Tucker) and then McMillian or Bucs defense if trying to pivot off Mahomes. As a Chiefs fan, Ill just hope these stacks fail.
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Updated 6:50pm CST
IND vs MIN Odds and Situations
Jefferson, possibly the best WR in the league, happens to be the top in expectatations and price tonight. Jonathon Taylor is quite close to that workload. Then we fall to a leveraged but highly owned Sam Darnold and Downs. Not quite sure who Goodsen and Mundt look low owned, but I do think TJ Hockenson might be planning to play tonight. Trey Sermon is so low owned that you almost have to play him in a single dart if you think Taylor gets hurt.
Vegas Projections
Very interesting to see my sheet project Indianapolis to win this game outright. Why? I dont know, but this is perfect for my strategy of building 4-2 underdog stacks, my favorite.
Defense vs Receivers
Indy has been pretty good relatively vs WR1 so far, or slightly above average. Seems a TE or WR3 could end up stepping up for them. and Indy can work with WR1, which is Pittman or Downs depending on the day and year.. Downs has like 9 more targets than Pittman for what its worth. Hockenson is back most likely so that will be another layer of TE issues.
Also worth mentioning that the middle of the field is weak in both offenses but moreso for Minnesota. The deep balls may be there too, although I expect this game to go under expectations tonight.
Snap Counts
Mundt and Oliver play similar snaps so theres that. Gotta see if one is blocking more or one getting redzone looks I suppose. Pittman is also playing more snaps than Downs but if hes not doing anything with them, what good is that? We will have to see if one holds leverage over the other.
When IND has the ball:
While Indy may not be favored to win, theres a high chance that they will hold low ownership as underdogs. I am playing 4 in my lineup. Lots of guys in this offense leave points on the table, so just maybe they figure out how to convert tonight. As of now, Pittman looks to be the better play for leverage of the two. Mitchell has quite a bit of leverage in flex showing. Ideally the 4 plays make sense together so that would drag Flacco into the mix.
When MIN has the ball:
Seems that Mundt or Nailor are the current contenders for me, maybe with Darnold. Hopefully the pair connect on a few points.
Leverage
Aaron Jones is the chalk, and the only way to get around that is either an injury or the Colts defense stop the run. The good news is that the Colts D line matches up well with the Minnesota O line, meaning there is a path to him failing. Colts defense, Jonathon Taylor, and Darold passing game are all viable pivot points.
Optimal Lineup
The optimizer says that this is how to get the most points out of my projections. Clearly not the way to play the showdown but perhaps you can use it as a template and find some pivot opportunities with 1 or 2 plays you believe in. I am going to go for the underdog stack so either Darnold or JJ has to go. Aaron Jones is the top ownership for now so that is interesting.
Also note, I added ROI to this calculation and this one is positive, thanks to Mundt but that news on Hockenson can impact this.
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Updated: 10/31 625pm CST
NYJ vs HOU Odds vs Situations
Tonight is shaping up to be the battle of the RBs, on a Thursday night, which I personally hate playing. It feels like rest could be a factor, although I think Breece took a nice rest on Sunday when everyone played him. Mixon likely steps up as the WR2 and RB on his team with Diggs out. Over the past 5 weeks, Wilson has had the most opportunity though of all based on his expectations per game. On the cheap side of this chart, I like seeing names like JJ Taylor and Dare.. We may all be Dare'd to play someone like that if playing both RBs, as the price is high and likely undoable based on ownership but we will see.
Vegas Expectations
Lines will move but for now, my sheet projects Houston to win while Vegas projects the Jets to win. Losing your two top WRs is tough to overcome, but its also doable (Mahomes, Baker, and now Stroud). One thing about Showdown is that when Vegas favors a side, that side tends to be the top owned side, so we will want to see if that line goes back towards Houston or not. Either way the Jets, I project to put up 3 TDs worth of points. Will they do it?
Game Scripts
It's been a while since I showed this visual but for these 3 games, I did want to point out that Darnold and Mahomes have the best passing situations of the 6 QBs. For the NYJ vs Houston matchup, whats interesting is that the Jets are likely to pass for their touchdowns, at least 2 out of 3 times. Breece is used in the passing game as well though. Houston is more likely to run the ball with success. Houston actually ranks 3rd in DVOA vs the pass so that doesnt look good for success for the Jets to me.
Defense vs Receivers
So Mixon happens to be in a great spot the more I look at things, because NYJ give up a bit to the RB position and quite frankly - there isnt a real WR2 that we know of in Houston right now. His usage is also quite high, and Tank Dell will end up in an OK spot too, although he hasnt done a whole lot this season to date. The WR2 for the Jets is likely the path for them, and honestly I cannot tell you who that is. I slid Adams in that spot for now, but it could easily be Garrett Wilson at any point too.
In the other games, Kelce ends up in a good spot, along with Downs or Pittman, depending on who you believe is WR1 there.
NYJ Stacking Scenarios
Update: Rodgers ownership is remaining low, although his captain leverage itself is barely there. Breece contains the most of the captain leverage but will force you into some cheap guys for sure.
Breece Hall looks like he has potential as the captain play for the Jets if you believe in him. Of course you will want to figure out who to pair him with to be unique. The kicker and Jets defense both make sense from a game flow perspective and real life perspective because the Jets have trouble scoring and it could remain low scoring with Rodgers failures involved. Oddly enough, Rodgers has low ownership at captain so I'm not all that inclined to fade him, but I will say him and Adams have negative leverage right now. These numbers around leverage change up to lineup lock.
Almost forgot to mention, that I added a column for Situation Proj, in order to show which plays project better for me than the normal field projections. In addition to Adams and WIlson, Ruckert and Gipson are the two darts I would trust the most, although I am unsure you 'have' to go cheap yet.
HOU Stacking Scenarios
Update: Schultz has entered captain leverage territory. Maybe he eats the targets that I expected Mixon to get? 5% expectations at captain are intriguing enough.
Interestingly with Houston, the team looks mightily condensed to 3 players in good spots; Mixon, Stroud and Dell. The issue is only seeing leverage with Mixon of the 3 and that has high ownership. I think that choosing between Mixon and Breece makes sense tonight, but at least we have some darts to go to if you believe in the expensive cores. Robert Woods and Dare are the 2 dart throws here, but honestly the Kicker makes more sense than they do, if taking 4 from this side.
As of 2pm CST, my lean is 4 Jets, 2 Houston players potentially but I may just hand build a 4 man stack for each team and see how they feel come lineup lock time.
Leverage:
I see both RBs are likely to take on the top ownership. They are close enough to where this applies in both cases, but if fading a RB, the leverage spots that might make sense are
Playing a QB + WR stack of the same team
Playing the opposing defense
I believe you can make a case for doing either of the two tonight.
IND vs MIN (SNF)
KC vs TB (MNF)
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