top of page
Writer's picturedfsedric

PGA Byron Nelson Round 4 Showdown Strategy

In a rare chain of events, I decided I would put out an excel view to ideally find the best plays for the Round 4 Showdown tomorrow. This is the process I use for PGA Showdown. Note that I prefer late showdown because of the likelyhood I can predict ownership that way. However this will display the zone of players out of the 70 remaining.


The Sheet

I sorted this top to bottom based on projected ceilings. Here you will find how the player has done in 3 rounds stat wise, optimal percentage chances, Odds of top 5 (ImpOdds) and some other key pieces. The checkboxes indicate either 1, the player has gained strokes in all categories, 2. The potential to do better putting if they get hot and 3, the players who have done well tee to green + approach, which is a key indicator here.


What do we target?

In 3 rounds of tournament, it appears that Tee to Green play (which is a combo of stats) has been the most correlated towards the leaderboard so far. Of the stats that make T2G, approach play seems to be the most ideal to gain strokes in order to move up. SO that means I do care about those two stats more than anything tomorrow.


Next, for round 4, there are bonus points that associate with your finishing position. Basically you want players who have the ability to finish in the top 10 if possible. With this being a birdie fest and players going on -7 type runs, this is going to stretch the field a bit more than usual as anyone within 7 points of the leaderboard is in play if they have birdie making potential in them.


Another key stat is the round 4 scoring. Not just how they rank but how they rank in comparison to round 3, because that may hint at the player's ability to improve round over round.


Finally, you do want birdies more than just about anything in showdown. Make sure who you target has already hit birdies and eagles as that outweighs the bogey scoring. That is, A player who scores 5 birdies and 5 bogeys is more valuable to me than someone who scores 0 bogeys and 2 birdies (rough example)


Putting it together

The plays I may find myself targetting the most:


Jason Day - With 11 birdies and ranking 11th in par 4 scoring, I dont see a reason he fails. He is in 4th place and can make a run for the win really. I'd hate that as to how chalky he is in the main slate, but its there for him to finish in the top 5.


Scottie Scheffler - Most of the same reasons as Day, I fully expect him to be the chalk of the slate. However that doesnt matter if he wins it, as most expect him to do. He has proven he's capable of closing out round 4 many times, ranking 6th in that category.


Eric Cole - Ranking 2 spots behind Scottie in the round 4 scoring category is Eric Cole. He has not been gaining strokes putting and thats what is holding him back. The putter can get hot in any given round so he makes a great candidate to do well.


Taylor Montgomery - Taylor has one of the highest optimal percentages in the field and therefore has to be considered. He also has one of the highest ceilings despite being ranked 26th. He has gained strokes across the board so I have to say that is a recipe for success.


Robby Shelton - I played him in my main lineup (currently ranked 40th of 7100 entries). He is on the cheaper side at 7000 and just may get hot and take off (hopefully).


Richy Werenski - Final play I'll toss out and it is just that he is playing really well. Limited bogeys but maximizing birdies so far. He is within striking range of the top 5 so we will see if he is a closer.


Please help me promote this site with likes, retweets and comments on my twitter feed if this is helpful.


Good luck!


83 views

Comentários


bottom of page