Here we go again, with a tournament amongst up and coming tier of golfers. Last week this was a tough one to navigate. I believe this one can be tougher than that. Nonetheless the system stays the same, we find leverage against the field for our best chances at 1st place.
Salary vs Expectations and Situations
I cant believe we are right back to Keith Mitchell up top on odds with leverage. I guess he burned just enough people last week to solidify his spot this week as going underowned. That means I'm going to live free or die hard. The good and bad news is that last week, he missed the cut due to losing almost 2 strokes putting. Putters can get hot quicker than anything else, so lets hope that happens here as scoring is important again. Not to mention, hes right outside of the top 75 Fed Ex so this is his chance to make a move into contention.
I dive into the scatter plot later in this writeup, so lets look at the tables. Spieth and Sungjae both seem to have the most upside, but lack in the leverage category. You do not have to play 100% leverage plays to win. Your total lineup needs to have leverage though, so if playing one or both of them, I'd be looking at pairing with CT Pan as of now, as he is calculated as the top leverage per the leverage table. Other 'generally' safe guys at this course appear to be Schenk and Glover. Maybe Mccarthy too, who I find interesting due to this next chart.
Actual Wins vs Expected Wins
There is no leverage showing on Denny Mccarthy. However he is the name on this week's chart that has played well enough to win but has not won yet. 23% owned so that is a scary play yet.. again could be of interest. Infact, before locking him in, consider the next chart.
Bust Alerts
I pulled up the least leveraged plays on the board with the most ownership. Playing them, if they do well, you stick in the crowd of others who play them and still need to find a way to move up elsewhere. If they do fail though, being off them is the lever to send you up the leaderboard. I doubt that they all fail as some are chalky for good reasons. Which ones make sense to fade vs play? If you answer that correctly, you win.
Course Fits (datagolf)
It seems that driving accuracy is of importance at this course, while around the green is a bit less important. If looking closer at last week, I will say that Keith Mitchell was only about 60% accurate in driving which isn't very good. Distance likely helps as well as approach play. Good thing is good putting seems to be slightly less important than the average course, for those who get it to the green.
Salary Range Pivoting
Sorted by odds
$10k
None of these guys carry any leverage this week. 80% of ownership expected here between these 4 players, maybe some cases with 2 10K guys. Sepp won here last year. Sungjae has the top odds on the slate. Rai played well last week. And then there's Spieth with the most upside on the board. I dont have a pick here due to lack of leverage.
$9k
First opportunity for pivoting here, is Mitchell. If 9% owned, he can pivot off of McNealy or a popular Davis Thompson or Denny McCarthy if they fail. Of course his Driving Accuracy is lower than all 3 of those names. Day and Stevens are lower owned leverage but also low odds for this range too.
$8K
The top guys in the 8K range seem healthy enough to make a lineup. Svensson also failed us last week so whether he bounces back or not is to be determined but he does have reasaonble ownership and odds. Kevin Yu also looks good in lineups for his ceiling.
$7K
The 7K range is deep so I will only post the top odds to show that Ryo and Burger are expected to take in the most ownership in this range. Sigg is a guy I played last week but didnt see success with.
My verdict is that the 9K range is the one to be the most careful with this week.
Underowned Optimal Plays
As mentioned, your entire lineup doesnt need to go underowned but finding the right combo of guys to pivot is clutch. Ill likely have at least 3 of these names in every lineup. Still debating on my favorite chalk because you likely need 1 or 2 of them plays on weak field events like this.
Good luck!
Comentarios