PGA DFS Odds and Leverage for Draftkings GPP - Wyndham Championship

One of the final weeks of the year for PGA ahead, specifically prior to playoffs. Maybe we get some surprises? I look at my data charts live with you and describe what I see from there. Hopefully a few plays will help guide you to a winning build this week.

Situations vs Salary (updated 8/7)

Welp, Shane Lowry stands out quite a bit as the best of the players in this field. His price reflects it as well but maybe there are enough cheap plays to make it worth it. Adam Hadwin looks to be one of the top potential values in this field. Then finally will call out Matt Wallace as a borderline yet top leverage potential play. Vegas is also high on that list with a bit more upside so I will keep that in mind too.

Core but Leveraged

These guys here are names that check all of the boxes and seeing Hadwin here makes me more than likely to target Hadwin this week, while hoping for the best.

Actual Wins vs Expected Wins

Denny McCarthy and Brian Harman lead this list of names who have played well enough to win this year, but have not won this season. If they align to the course I may try and target one or the other as outright or top 5 contenders this week. Charley Hoffman is the next closest on this list as well so I wanted ot mention that based on his non existent ownership.

Course Fits (datagolf)

Finally we can start looking at the course itself. Which guys are best at driving accurately? because that is the key to this course. It is one of the toughest courses on tour when it comes to bogey avoidance when you have to shoot from the rough.

History vs Correlated Courses

When looking at those who played here the last 5 years as well as a correlated course (TPC Sawgrass), I get an idea of which guys have the ability to get to the top 10 this week. Si Woo, Webb, and Kisner have all posted strong history on these types of courses. Of the 3, Si woo has played the best recently.

Underowned But Optimal (updated 8/7 4pm CST)

I mapped the value to the history and course fits to get 3 names this week that I will have high interest in. Shane Lowry, Adam Hadwin and Doug Ghim.

(previous)

It is early and I suspect this chart to fluctuate because many names are capable of floating up top here and falling off. I choose 8 picks that happened to post value. I intend to get 4 from this list in my lineups when it comes to a core but leveraged build.

Last Years Optimal

The highest potential score you could get was 693 and I guarantee no one hit that. Salary did not align well to the leaderboard results last year. Maybe the same this year which means that the odds may not have been very predictive? Thanks to oddsvault.io, we can take a look and see!

OddsVault Historical Player Odds

With oddsvault, what I am looking for is correlation to the odds to win vs actual finish results. Hideki was the favorite to win last year. How did he do? He got cut. McCarthy who we were looking at this week? Also cut. Some of the top of the leaderboard can be seen here but we can see the variance right away.

I resorted the results by finish position and look at how high of odds the top of the leaderboard had. 65-1 if you bet Glover last year. As I sort again, I see that Vegas was much better at predicting top 5 finishers than any other list. Feel free to browse other years here (back to 2019 and see how things played out.

Salary Pivots by Range

10K+

Sungjae has the highest odds for sure in this field, but he will bring a bunch of ownership with him. Thats why I have decided I would take a stand in the 10K range and settle into Lowry as my favorite pick here. I could see a double play with a 2nd 10K player working out this week for safety reasons but it will require some strong leverage which we do have this week to support that.

9K+

To be honest, I'm not at all excited about the 9K range this week. Si Woo and Spieth seem like they could end up in a few lineups for me due to upside and history but otherwise may get Min Woo in this range, literally.

8K+

Bez is the highest odds of this range and is the most optimal play on the board. However there is opportunity to pivot away from him despite what the optimizer says. English and Bradley are both half the ownership of him. Rai is the same way - whereas his ceiling seems like something you could pivot away from.

7K+

The 7K range has so many plays available that just about everyone has low expected ownership in it. I would recommend not necessarily pivoting in the cheap space this week, and instead looking at who the best fits are. That is, I may play Poston here because of his success in the past and his good driving accuracy for example. However Kitiyama has the best odds for success. His driving accuracy on the season hasnt been great though.

Thats all I have for now, GL!