Only 2 weeks left to get something out of the regular season. Last week, we saw leverage prevail against the field in a major way. This week, we are going to hope for some similarities. Lets walk through my charts 1 by 1 and piece together some angles for DFS.
Odds and Situations vs Salary
This is a very thin scatterplot up top. The top guy (Finau) is owned well beyond his point of leverage. His price point high as well, and yet almost all of the plays are in the 7K to 8K range this week that are considered positive leverage, minus Theegala, who is below the value line. I am unsure what this means for lineup construction at this time.
I do know that FInau has the top projected upside, Berger could be the top value, and Chesson Hadley has the projected top leverage spot, although low odds on him, so that is extreme boom or bust. Ryo might end up being that guy this week instead if leverage calls. Whether or not you play them, is likely a personal choice, but understand that those guys may be overowned at least.
Actual Wins vs Expected Wins
Last week I mentioned that Rory and Scheffler were out of position for a win with regards to this chart. Infact Xander was the next man up and he won. In this case, There is a tad bit of positive win equity on Bhatia. Hoffman is the name on this chart without a win but almost expected to have one at this point in the year. Dunlap has won twice but shouldn't have won any per his strokes gained.
Course Fits (datagolf)
The course doesnt require distance off the tee or strong putters to succeed. It does seem to require a bit of everything else including accuracy off the tee. There will be some other motivations in play such as making the playoffs and getting in position to make the future rounds of the playoffs though.
Underowned but Optimal
I circled the names of value plays that may be underowned. Not all will work out, but they are interesting. I believe there is a certain level of chalk we will be able to eat this week due to the amount of leverage in this section.
Course and Related Course History
I see a path to some of these guys being in lineups despite the ownership because course history is a factor here. These guys have multiple top 20s and top 10s between TPC Twin Cities and their most correlated courses when looking at the past 5 years.
Last Year's Optimal
I was quite surprised to see how much leverage went into this optimal lineup last year. Essentially a combined 37% projected ownership for the lineup. Finau did get 7th and scored 101 points, so I believe you could have taken Wu out and gotten there with him. He was projected 20% owned last year. He also missed the cut at The Open the week before as well, so if history repeats, he could bounce back and be fine.
I think this tells us though that big names aren't necessary at this event because the scoring might be present in some underowned plays this week.
Salary Based Pivots
10K+
We spoke about Finau a bit because he is going to be owned in 1 out of every 3 lineups. Optimal percentage says he should be owned in 1 of every 5 lineups instead. He has history here and best odds and upside on the slate which means he cant be faded easily. If you do wish to pivot though at this range, Theegala is intruiging. Sam Burns also has history of success here so I dont want to go without mentioning that, but neither are going to be decisions that feel good from a leverage perspective.
9K
Horschel is bouncing in and out of the chart, but as of this writing he is out. He finished T2nd last week at a difficult course. This week its birdies and scoring so maybe hes not worth it. Therefore my gut tells me to fade this range entirely, which explains the steep curve in the scatterplot. If you do, you will avoid quite a few high owned plays this week. Bhatia and Mitchell have the ability to give me some heartburn in that method fyi.
8K
There are also plays in this range that fail to show leverage surprisingly. Mcnealy and Rodgers, both who give me heartburn when I do play them are the only leverage. Meanwhile Hodges won this event last year and has the worst odds of the 8K range. Grillo has great history here as well so they may be good chalk for a reason but bad prices.
7K
There are simply too many names listed in this range to show as leverage but looking at top odds, Hadwin who also has strong history here, doesnt have any leverage showing. Id have to go towards Svenson to get to positive leverage. Maybe worth looking into who scores the most birdies this week from that range.
Birdies this year
Just looking at neutral to positive leverage when I made this list. At least we know why McNealy odds are a bit higher than expected. He is a good scorer.
Good luck!
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