Time for the next edition of analysis - where we figure out how to be smart in our pivots and give ourselves the best odds to win. This writeup is just that. I will review one angle at a time to point out different pivots you can take. I hope you find your edge on the field this week, using these insights.
Odds and Situations
This is a summary of many things. The scatterplot shows the odds vs the salary. Above the line indicates someone who is priced lower than the success odds I have calculated. Greener dots indicate more leverage on that particular person. So Xander seems to be the top play this week based on his odds while Hoge may be the most underpriced.
Beneath this, we have 4 tables, which list the situation that is sorted. Aberg and Rory may have the most upside, Mcckibbin may be the top value play, Si Woo is currently the top leverage and Fleetwood seems to be the safest historically. I'll get to more on that soon.
Core But Leveraged
This week, 3 names checked the boxes to make this list. I am going to be rooting for Kurt K and Van Rooyen since they are the lowest owned of the crew. They are half the ownership of Rai and Thomas as well.
Actual Wins vs Expected Wins
This field is quite deep with folks who are overdue a win. Xander has 1 win, but should have 2. Same with Clark. Denny and Brian are both winless but should have won once this year already as well, with Morikawa right behind him. Tom Kim is creeping up this chart but not quite overdue yet. Rory on the other hand has 3 wins but has only 1 expected wins so I will favor Xander over him.
Course Fits
The course seems to favor bombers the most, thus how Rory won last year. However I saw that accuracy off the tee can be beneficial in top 5 finishes too.
Recent Form and Related Course History
Based on the most correlated courses, I created a list of players who have done well at multiple courses that are correlated to this week's course. Then sorted by the ones who finished in the top 10 of these courses the most often to find my course fits. Since the results go for this year and last, I also compared to the players recent results. Tom Kim seems to be the ideal play, with 2 top 20s in these courses, averaging 19th on 4 cuts made of 5, and 2 recent top 10s. Whether or not he's chalk, he may make for a good play. Fleetwood, Min Woo both also stick out from this week's field.
Salary Range Pivots
Sometimes it is easy to find the key to a tournament in the salary. Lets see how each one shapes out today.
$10K+
At this range, I dont see a great pivot option. All of these guys are playable. Xander is the top odds play here. Morikawa is the lowest owned. Rory has the least leverage and possibly overowned, yet he won last year, and then Aberg has the most upside if he excels. Nothing clear here that screams must play or fade.
$9K+
Fleetwood has the top odds at this range, but also the top owned in the 9K range. Hideki brings a leverage opportunity to the mix. Kim and Min Woo are lacking leverage but I'd say are also intruiging. In looking into their recent form and success at other courses, I dont think any of those guys fail per se, but they will require you to find leverage elsewhere if not taking a Hideki or Hovland here.
8K+
Sungjae just finished playing last week and so I think ownership will stay low on him. Hes the lowest owned but highest odds of this range. Wyndham Clark appears to be the top owned in this range, and so this could be the opportunity range to pivot. Rai also played last week. Theegala is half the ownership at a similar price so maybe that is the pivot if he can get himself together. Odds have him towards the bottom of this list so it wont feel great..
$7K
This range always comes with risk but I will list what we have. Davis Thompson is coming off a win on short notice but has the highest odds showing in this range (with risk of course). Detry is quite a ways down this list but is the highest expected ownership in the 7K range. This is also intruiging for pivot purposes. Bez and Noren both got last week off so they should come in fresher with better odds.
Optimal but Underowned
Not all of these names are going to pan out or even fit a lineup together, but this subset of names could provide leverage on the field if you get the right 3-4 of them. Id be somewhat cautious of anyone who played the week before due to travel time. Last year's top 10 the week before didnt crack the top 30, although - none of them got cut the week after either.
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