Welp we had some success last week in the leverage streets. This week I think is more of a crap shoot than the last couple. So I'm looking forward to reviewing my own data and reading what I am typing hah. This feels like pivot city. Lets begin.
Salary vs Expectations with Situational lists
If you know me by now, you understand that I write this article along with my first look at what the charts say. This is the first peek and for 156 golfers, it is kinda bare looking. Thats because the overall top odds belong to Tom Kim while the rest of the field is much weaker than usual. Cam Young and Tom Kim both lead in upside but lack leverage. Mix leverage in there and we get even less. Bramlett and Sigg both seem to head the way early on in leverage. Upside and leverage have me considering Zalatoris as a potential starting point and yet hes below the odds value trend line. Keith Mitchell and Svenson both look like the highest values otherwise.
Core but Leveraged
Only one name on the list as of Tuesday and thats Adam Schenk who I rarely trust with my lineups. With that price and ownership, I am more likely to take a chance than not.
Actual Wins vs Expected Wins
In identifying who has played well enough to win but hasnt won yet, Charley Hoffman is atop the list, although still short a win expectation. Tom Kim is next in line behind him but at 27% owned, is that too much to play at his price point? We will see.
Course Fits (datagolf)
So we are 3 charts in, and finally looking at the course. Thats how I roll, leverage spots first because everyone likes stats and that simply isnt enough for a top finish. However it is good for core plays and from what I am seeing here, nothing sticks out as an indicator of success as everything plays a bit under average. Interesting enough though, there are some long holes which are what give the best scoring potential, and so driving distance can be important on them par 5s. Strong putting seems to be a common thread amongst the top scorers too. There are also hints of good scrambling and approach play in the top scores as well but nothing definite.
Underowned by Optimal
Mitchell and Svensson head the chart and leverage potential early on. Kevin Yu though is about half the ownership of Svensson so that makes me a bit nervous. I think 3 to 4 of these names in a lineup may be interesting based on the price points. Schenk is on the fence in this early look. I hope to get a Wednesday late night update out, but good luck in your early move making!
Update # 1
It appears that these names are projecting the most ownership on the slate as of Wednesday. The are the best golfers in the field but not one contains positive leverage in my sheets. What this means is - some of them will likely do well due to the weaker field event, but the more of these guys in your lineup, the less leverage you will have as well. I am considering limiting these guys to 2 or less this week. Most are pricey options as well so just maybe that will force me into more Zalatoris and Noren. Below are the more optimal plays going underowned after the Wednesday afternoon update.
Salary Range Pivots
10K+
For those playing in the 10k and up range, you have these 4 guys to choose from, sorted best to worst odds. Their odds are all good for success, but just lacking in leverage which makes it tough to recommend here. Noren is the lowest owned in expectations as of now but not quite enough for me to get excited about to pivot to necessarily.
9K
The top odds in this range will be Bhatia who has been doing well for a while now. However the only guy in this range you can get leverage on is Will as of now. The others are neutral to negative leverage. Again these are all the best plays up top - but because of the weak field, going to too many will get you into a duplicated lineup scenario in larger fields.
8K
I have 3 names in this range who have positive leverage showing. Last week the 8K range was the most deadly but perhaps it wont be the same this week.
7K
The 7K range is the only range where the top odds play s in my realm of possibilities (Svensson). I am unsure if that makes me more or less confident in those 3 names atop of this list. I will say that Hojgaard, Moore, Wallas and Cam Davis are less likely to make my builds as a result though so if I were to pick a danger range, itd be this one, and watch out for them 4 names I just called out as I bet 1 or 2 of them completely bust. Good luck!
Comentarios