It's playoff time and if you have seen my other writeups, you should know what to expect here.
Odds and Situations
We have a very pricey Scheffler in the field with top ownership too. When I ran optimal percentages he was still up there but not quite 33%, so that is a question mark in entries. The immediate pivot to him would seemingly be Xander S, who I have pivoted to many times this season (with little success along the way). Its the playoffs so it will be interesting.
Core but Leveraged Plays
There are 3 names on this list, all in single digit ownership. Day and Scott have had some good finishes in their recent so I'm leaning Day the most of these 3, without any knowledge of the course itself yet.
Expected Wins vs Actual Wins
Scheffler has 7 wins, but was expected to win like 5.65 times this year. That is quite wild, and also reason I continue to fade when his ownership is way up. It hasnt worked well, but thats what I do. If I play 2 lineups though, he will likely be in 1 which is actually not fading at all on 50%. Clark, McCarthy, and Harman are all overdue a win on this list. Morikawa is right behind them. Rory is also due to not win anymore but he has good history here for perhaps a top 5 finish.
Course Fits (datagolf)
It would seem that this course can be beaten with less than long drivers, although you likely need to be solid elsewhere. Maybe becaue of the short par 3 holes.
When looking at course history on this course + related courses, I can see that Justin Thomas, Finau, Hovland and several others have done well on this course style. Its no cut so it will be a bit difficult to really pick someone who has not done well here.
Underowned but Optimal
These guys could go under the radar yet are seemingly OK plays to find value and uniqueness this week. Maybe more to come late tonight!
Last year's Optimal
Only 8 players scored over 100 points last year and the salary was efficient to make the optimal, meaning the odds were likely a strong indicator towards value and lineup construction. Infact an overowned negatively leverage play made it in too. Interestingly enough, Scheffler was 12k last year and finished 31st here for some reason...
Salary Based Pivots
10K+
So Scottie has the top odds of course, but as mentioned, there is some intrigue in a Xander pivot if going up top. Last year Rory made the optimal at same price.
9K+
There is a chance that I fade the 9K range this week. Perhaps because of the 10K range prices. None of them look like must plays or any form of must plays.
8K+
It would seem that the value reappears come the 8K range starts to take. Kim, Horschel and Young all have some form of value showing. I'll likely lean on their history to make a choice between them.
7K+
Jason Day and Spieth leading the way over here. Not sure if it makes sense to play both but there are multiple guys in this range that make sense at least.
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