Back to PGA where last week, one of my pages had the winner and somehow I still sucked at building lineups. Gotta cut back on them missed cuts and hopefully the Rocket Mortgage Classic is where we do it. The fields appear to be weaker in the upcoming weeks so this is the ideal leverage time to me. Lets see if we can pay off a mortgage.
Updated: 10:23 pm CST (Look for updated data labels for changes)
Odds and Situations
Updated data!
There is another key update coming to this visual but I need some time. At that point I will narrow this field to the top GPP golfers you typically see when I screenshot the high made cut numbers on twitter. For now, I will call out a couple names that are difficult to see:
Dylan Wu was the greenest dot on the far left. Now it has moved to Nesmith which means I am moving with him.
The 9K and 10K ranges are pretty well owned and spread. Morikawa is the lowest owned at the top of the odds chain, which might bring appeal his way for me
Cam Davis and Thomas Detry both also striking me as low owned guys with potential. I will monitor closely because if they are under projected in ownership by a little, this could flip the switch for me.
Diving into the scatterplot a bit closer:
I went through the above pass of players and identified the top and lowest owned projection wise in each price range. You dont have to pivot 100% of the time, but if you find 1 or 2 pivots it is the difference between 5 of 6 and 6 come Saturday with the potential to move up. If you believe the chalk hits you may disregard many of these guys, but if you are like me, you go for the green every week and land on players like these below:
(Updated 9pm!)
Matthew Nesmith is the top leverage it seems so I will build a lineup with him (greenest dot). Who do we put with him? Maybe Finau or Homa?
Previous:
This is the first look at the names who align to situations as well as the great scatterplot, where we try and spot guys with high odds vs their price for value. In addition the green dots highlight the guys who are underowned. This is too early in the week to assume the leverage and ownership stays where it is. I filter this down as the week goes so check back later this week for updates.
Core but Leveraged Plays
Update: Cam Davis ownership has moved him off this list FYI.
Previous Update:
Last week, this chart is where Keegan Bradley popped up. This week, I only see one name right now and thats Cam Davis. I'll be taking a chance here to some extent since he checks all the boxes (Recent form, a top 10 at this course in history, and leverage).
Actual Wins vs Expected Wins
Only 3 names appear here this week with enough strokes gained in the field to win a tournament. The only problem is that They have actually all won twice already so I dont anticipate this chart being predictive this week. Keegan just got his 2nd win and it seems he need to some things to get back up to even.
Course History
One thing I did is pull the last 5 course historical stroke gained stats to see where the most strokes gained came from. Troy Merritt has had 3 top 20 finishes here. His form is terrible but I will take my shot here in this week field (low stakes). Kirk and Straka and Wallace also have good history here. One thing to note is that approach play isnt quite as important here as it usually is. Putting seems to be a key stat for the top 20 finishers.
Recent Form
Adam Schenk is a guy I try not to play more often than not. However we are on such a weak field that he becomes a potential top play, especially when reviewing recent form. It is a name to consider with Aaron Rai as well. Some amatuer names if you want darts? Aberg and Sargent have played well too.
Leverage
Updated data!
We see a few names pop up on the list of leverage plays from before. Leverage is essentially building solid plays that the field refuses to play. Similar happens in poker, when folks play the Ace/King cards only when you have the 8/9, possibly suited cards. That hand will win if the flop is 5-6-7, and thats the thought this week. Finau and Fowler and Hideki are all your Ace King Queen cards, but what if they flop? Your Morikawa/Jaeger plays still have potential in this field if you play that hand.
Cam Davis ownership has sorta pulled him off this list so its likely he got more popular in one too many circles for me to stay with him.
Last year's optimal
What do we know about last year's optimal?
No one played it. 731 was the top scoring lineup last year
It left over 1000 on the table, yet it had 2 10k+ guys in the lineup. Neither of those guys were really leverage plays at all.
Multiple guys who are quality putters made this list.
Every golfer needed to score 100+ points to make it
Ownership was still super low on the lineup (about 65% total).
Good luck!
Comments