Top 50 players left in the field and so things are tough from here on out, no doubt. You may be lookin at this field saying how the heck do I get an edge? It starts here. Love a small field if you've seen the type of sports I play outside of PGA.
Updated: 6:43 pm CST
Odds and Situations
Updated: The cheapest name to appear is now Kurt in the playable zone. I assume his ownership dropped since yesterday to make him appear. In a no cut event, I have to think that the cheap guys can get value. Diving a bit deeper to align highest ownership to success rate and pivots:
The interesting thing this week is that the top guys are the best plays, with their ownership. I dont see viable pivots away from that area yet, based on current ownership. I'm seeing a path to several cheap guys as well. I have this feeling that most lineups will have 2 studs this week, which makes the 8-9K ranges a bit appealing. Ricky Fowler? Cam Young? Even Wyndham Clark - that range will be difficult to get to, so that may be the move I make -> playing 2 from that area. Also sad to see Bye An as a top 5 chalk, because he aligns to this course so well. However I cant imagine that building lineups like everyone else is going to work out this week, or any week. So Denny Mccarthy - we pivoted away from him when he busted 2 weeks ago, for Bye An. Maybe its time we reverse it to Theegala or Denny?
Previous:
Here is our starter kit. The trendline says that the top guys will be the top guys, and then it starts getting shady around the 9K range, based on all the plays below the line from there down. Then we get a popup Theegala/Kim/Denny/Moore/Hadwin section. To me, the cheap guys are going to drive this event because they will tell you how much you can afford up top without destruction. Theres also too many green dots to really hone in just yet, especially with ownership 2 days early. If Morikawa or Fleetwood comes in the low, I'm probably going to build around one or the other.
Core but Leveraged
These guys are 'at your own risk' this week. Neither is really trailblazing right now. However they do check some specific boxes for me as far as could plays. Denny was chalk not so long ago til he screwed folks over in favor of my pivots. He hasnt looked good since then, but I'm thinking of taking a chance here and there on both of these guys at the price.
Actual Wins vs Expected Wins
This list hasnt ever been longer than this week and its a testiment to the quality of field we have. I thought for sure that Cantlay would have crossed over last week with a win, but he didnt, so him and Xander still remain the top candidates to win an event based on strokes gained this year. Morikawa and Scheffler are both overdue still. These numbers are season long and so Rory is still behind in expectations despite playing well the last several weeks.
Course Fits (datagolf)
There is very limited data here but it would seem that the bombers are important here. In addition, putting and around the green also carry some weight and I think this next table is even more telling.
Everything I see here tells me that this is going to be much tougher of a course than we have seen in the last few weeks, which makes me dislike Glover just a tad. Its the 4th toughest course to score on, with a ranking of 2nd toughest to score on par 5s specifically. Driving accuracy ranks 3rd toughest course. That means you need accurate driving, but yet I have this theory that bombers will be able to escape more trouble spots than the accurate guys who miss a tee shot. There are thin fairways - 3rd skinniest on tour. Then 5th toughest for greens in regulation and 3rd toughest on short approach shots. In other words.. fire up bogey avoidance ranks because I see lots of ways to fail and not many ways to excel on the surface.
Playing next week?
It seems that these guys have scored enough points to pretty much guarantee they move forward. Not to say that has a lot to do with how they play this week.. its something to keep in mind as far as motivations. Todd, English and Hoge all have the worst odds to make the cut fyi.
Recent Form
Rory, Fleetwood and Davis are the names I'd say have played the best recently. morikawa and Harman are lurking pretty closely. Jordan Spieth came in as a top leverage play last week and he did perform. Of this list he likely has the most leverage as well.
History notes
The trouble with this course is that they have multiple courses. They are specifically playing the north course this week which skews these numbers. Cantlay won in 2022, although the mislead is that the course was different. In 2020, this is your leaderboard. Look at that winning score.
A mix of distance and accuracy off the tee seems to make up this list. Digging a bit deeper, its likely scrambling that pairs well with the bombers, so as long as you aren't horribly off in accuracy, you can make up the missed shots here if your scrambling is on point. That favors B. An big time, even though Harman is first in accuracy, and Rory is currently 1st in distance.
Leverage
This is way heavier than normal here. I will wait and see before writing this up. Check back tomorrow evening and possibly Thursday morning!
2020 Optimal Lineup
I went back to see how things shaped up. The goal that year was 70 points per person as most golfers couldnt get to 60 that year. I think this course could shape up just as tough as any major if that holds again.
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