Welcome to my data driven insights to this week's PGA content. Last week, a late insight (posted on twitter) led to me having tons of Sepp Straka in my lineups and that was glorious. I don't know of a lot of people who would be able to get there without my power bi views, but power to those who did. I feel like we are getting the most out of data insights right now, since we have history and SG data piling in for the year to tell us who these golfers really are. If you are new here, I go through several different charts I have produced over the years and provide feedback to different situations that allow us to be unique in tournaments.
It is certainly worth reviewing the previous week's article in order to determine how the insights panned out vs reality.
With a split field event this week, I will mostly focus on the field with the most real recognizable names. I do intend to pull some data for the Barbosal event as well by Wednesday.
Updated: 2:51 pm CST
Note! The tournament starts around 1am my time so stay up late but get them lineups in early!
Odds and Situations
Updated field:
This is most likely in line with what I will go into the week with on the scatter plot. 21 golfers in the pool up top with a handful of others to get value and leverage elsewhere. I feel like Xander should be the highest owned golfer this week but based on what I have here, he is not. Check back tonight in case something updates otherwise but hes my favorite play. Scheffler is surprisingly leverage as he's priced up. Then we have to determine if I was a week early on Byeong last week? Or do we let him go this week in favor of Rodgers as our cheap core part. Those 7K guys are all single digit owned in my chart so this ought to be interesting. Cam Davis could be interesting too if he shows up.
Updated: The cheap guys are where I have some interest this week, as 6 of 6 is only possible based on what happens there. Patrick Rodgers is a name I need to research. I feel like hes been out a bit but hes heavy leverage right now.
I tend to update this chart as the week goes, which means that I will delete some of the images (including this one and refresh as things like ownership and odds are more clear, usually by Wednesday evening). As of today, we get Scottie as the consistant top dot on the chart, because he has the highest odds of success expected. Rory, Cantlay, and Hatton all appear above the trend line, indicating value for their odds. The names that stick out to me?
Xander and Fleetwood both have potential to go overlooked. Ownership will update as I get more data, but those I will watch.
Fitzpatrick seems to be on an island, which may make him a leverage play.
Cam Davis and Bye An are the cheaper tier guys with good looking odds for their salary.
Core but Leveraged
Updated: This list has cut down just a little bit from previous updates. I can't say I'll be playing Rory but there is a path to me playing just about everyone else up here.
Previous:
The following names have a decent chance of making cut and doing well against the grain based on their odds and history. This table also updates as the week goes on. Thomas Detry and Pat Rodgers are two guys I haven't played a whole lot this year. Wyndam Clark is also intruiging to me at this point.
Actual Wins vs Expected Wins
For those who have been following me since last year, you know that this chart has hit the winner many weeks now. The use case is to check the x_wins (expected wins) column and see who has a higher value than their actual 'wins' column. Scottie is likely to win another tournament this year. Xander and Cantlay are both overdue and therefore I'd recommend all three of them as contenders to win every week until they actually do.
On the flip side, Wyndham Clark and Rory both appear to be above schedule and I'd be fading them as I expect them to regress back to 'not winning'. In DFS it is tricky because they can still top 10 and do well but I just take a personal stance and fade where they are priced to win like Rory.
Course fits (datagolf)
What we see here is that driving distance has been the most important stat to target in this field to history and therefore I think we favor the bombers this week. Digging deeper into the course stats, one cool insight that I will call out is that approach play is important. This course is one of the top 2 most difficult courses to hit approach shots on the tour, where approach shots greater than 150 yards contribute to that significantly. So the type of golfer we want will have strong approach play after driving the ball farther and closer to the hole.
2023 Performance
This is likely the best of the 2023 performing crew going into this week. I put focus on those who have played well tee to green and approach doubled in to sort top to bottom. My pool will focus on those who have gained on approach for sure.
Recent form - last 5 tournaments
This listing shows how golfers have performed coming into this week. Nick Taylor did get a win but hasnt really had a top 15 otherwise. Scheffler and Rory have been on fire lately. The cheap guys all feel a bit darty this week. Id imagine you may have to take a chance on soe Euro guys to make things pan out this week. Richie Ramsay and Maximilian Kiefer (not in this top tier) both stand out a little for recent form.
Course History
Unfortunately I do not have the stats this week for this tournament to display since this data isn't showing under pgatour.
Leverage
The bottom 5 names are the ones I'll likely have the most interest in from a leverage perspective. Tom Kim Sung jae both seem to be the highest name up in odds with single digit ownership. Something to consider but I think I need another update in tonight.
Check back through Wednesday night to see the latest and greatest!
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