I stopped posting here for a while as I try and migrate from Wix to another platform, but it seems the site is still up and running so why not give it a whirl. I think the twitter threads were confusing people. Anyways, welcome back to those who still followed the threads. I'm going to walk through each of my charts to uncover some insights for this weeks tournaments to help you find the best leverage for your lineup cores.
Salary vs Expectations and individual Lists (updated)
This is the filtered list of names as we get ready for tipoff. One thing to note with non cut events is that some folks get an extra boost into the chart just for making the cut so names like Taylor Moore provide the most leverage but their odds are slightly inflated as well with making the cut unlike normal events.
(previous update)
The top sorta shows us who has the right expectations for their salary or underpriced for their odds, which is a calculation specific to me. Xander and Morikawa have both floated above the line with Scheffler for like 3 weeks in a row. On the cheaper side we see a few names bundled up which means that we will see the most massacres in the 6k and 7k range when it comes to getting the top play. Thats normal I suppose.
Beneath the scatterplot, we see lists that have a label sorting of some kind. Upside, Value, Leverage and Top 10s are the sorts. A note about leverage: usually playing that person is boom or bust, and also allows for a unique lineup build most times you get 1 or 2 of those guys right. Last week, Cantlay + Sergio would have worked out nice from that list. Leverage changes with ownership and that changes up til its live. As of now, the higher end leverage might be Justin Thomas or Matt Fitzpatrick since everyone makes the cut this week.
Actual Wins vs Expected Wins
Denny McCarthy is the only one overdue a win without one officially. However Xander and Clark both have played well enough this year to deserve a 2nd win. Meanwhile Brian Haran and Morikawa are next in line and right at the door. Neither very low owned.
Core but Leverage
3 names who check all the boxes to do well this week are above. Ownership may rise on them so I am going to wait and see but all 3 names make sense this week if looking for low owned core plays to plug into the rest of your build.
Datagolf Course Fits
Seems that this course typically allows for history to predict its future. It is short and therefore the most important stat is driving accuracy followed by approach play which should lead to scoring opportunities. It seems that -20 is quite possible for the winning scores this week so we need guys who can score.
Most optimal but underowned Leverage (updated)
These names all show up as value on odds while high chances of being optimal. I like to take 3-4 from this list in lineups. Also noting that playing a wave like afternoon might have some benefits if it rains Friday afternoon as expected.
(previous)
In the first round of looking, it seems that these 5 circled name have the most value and expectations of doing well in a lineup, but falling under in ownership. Is it for good reasons or is it a pivot opportunity? That will be for you to decide.
Plays by Salary Range
10K+
Only 3 options as Rory dropped out and 2 are above 11K. It is projected that 75% of all lineups will have at least 1 player in that space. Scottie has the top odds on the slate as expected, while Xander follows. However this is one of the first times in which Xander projects higher owned than his chances of being optimal. Aberg is interesting because hes not showing as value, but does carry the 2nd highest upside on the slate. I dont have a position on any of them.
9K+
Morikawa is the highest odds and ownership in this range. Hes also the most optimal play. I imagine he will blow up ownership wise just like last week in some GPPs because of his price but I dont see much reason to leverage off him. Fleetwood looks OK if you want to go there I suppose. If getting two guys out of this range, Cantlay becomes interesting as a pivot to someone like Schef in the next bracket, but thats hard to imagine panning out 2 weeks in a row.
8K+
This is where some true pivots begin for me. Henley and Harman are both going to be higher owned in this range. Henley is getting the most ownership followed by Harman who has had a lot of success here in the past. However neither of them show as leverage and likely help you dupe with someone else. Conners is a course fit and is about neutral in leverage right now. So the leverage in this range is Spieth Thomas and Fitzpatrick to me. Lets circle back to this range when the contest ends.
7K+ and below
Too many to name but the top owned seem to be the better plays here so no quarrel with them.
Summary: Id watch out in the 8k range this week if you are playing GPP!
Check back tonight for an updated look at these charts and insights!
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