We are back! Last week I played a single bullet lineup with no data because quite frankly, the format was wrecking havok on all of my tools. Today we put it all back together and see what we should do with the Mexico Open. With limited history showing, its a nice time to think through leverage so here we go.
Sorry this is coming out late, but its been a busy week! Slightly updated my odds calculation for PGA so lets see what happens.
Odds vs Situations
First thing to note; is that Rahm isnt showing here. Why? Because hes projecting to be over 60% owned. GTFOH! No way I'm playing him at 10pm on a weekday at that ownership. Yes, top odds that Ive ever seen at 3-1, but we are here for leverage and he aint got any. He does have the highest salary by a bit and that is recipe for disaster imo anyways. Plus the next chart is another reason I'm fading Rahm until further notice.
6 of the golfers in the field had top 10s last year. 2 golfers are holding the most leverage in the field: (Scott Piercy and Mark Hubbard. Trust either?
Expected wins
For this field, only two golfers made the cut and both are chalky. However one is at least projecting half the ownership of the other and that leaves some intruigue towards playing Finau (maybe). Rahm has the expectation of winning 3 times this year and hes already won 4 times. Finau is right at his expectations of winning once. If I only build 1 lineup I may play him. If I build 2, the 2nd one will not have a 30% owned guy in it.
Course Strategy
This course is just like most courses except the distance. It seems you can trade accuracy for distance this week. Its Par 4 and Par 5 yardage - in the top 5 longest on the tour, and that can make or break birdie opportunities.
Leverage Spots
Someone Im looking into playing is Charlie Hoffman. Projects well, not owned all that much, and has a decent optimal percentage due to the value and price. He is usually good in Texas courses and Mexico aint all that far from there. Lets see what happens.
History
Only 1 year to work from, and of course Rahm is up there. Other notables may include Lipsky, Smalley, and Murray.
Recent Form
Some names of golfers who have been playing well; Matt Wallace and Harry Hall, in terms of their average finish position when they do finish.
Hope this helps if you are up still. Good luck!
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