Last night I took an L with what I built from my leverage chart. Cant win them all with this strategy but the goal is to win big, not min cash. So I took my shot and missed. Today we do better.
Round 3 and 4 is slightly different in that 1, the player pool is super small already after the cut, so I show the whole pool, and not just leverage. You also must choose a captain with elevated salary so I will be using ceiling to get the best chances at that spot.
I'm lookin at this for the first time myself and can tell that Burns and JT will be the most popular captains, which fits because they have the highest upside.
Nesmith looks like he could be the best play on the slate if his ownership stays low as in 20s. Because he starts the day in 1st, I could see his ownership rising over projections possibly as well.
A couple ways to differentiate:
1. fade Thomas since he is the highest owned on the slate. It wont feel good but if he is just mediocre today, you can leap over half the lineups today.
2. Play one+ of the lowest ownerships. Lipsky may be that guy possibly. Werenski and Kaymer also have single digit ownership potential this afternoon so just maybe one of those guys give you unique lineup construction to take down a GPP.
3. Instead of taking Burns or Thomas as your captain, try a leverage play instead. This may allow you to get a higher ceiling of your play -> say Nesmith goes off and JT and Burns both do fine today. It will allow for a 3rd ceiling play like Hadwin or Xander.
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