I may start bundling the island games (MNF, TNF, SNF) into one writeup in order to consolidate pages a bit going forward. For today, we will list out the Pittsburg vs NY Giants analysis to find ways to get different than the 100,000 people fighting for your money. Lets go
Salary vs Expectations
I'm searching for the players who have gotten the most opportunity for the price and overall the most opportunity in this view. This is on a 'per game' basis and therefore Wilson is high here, because he only has 1 game to show for his work. In that one game he did some work but that doesn't quite compare to those with 5 games elsewhere in this list. Nabers is a bit more trustworthy but also the same issue due to injury. Plays above the line are considered value for their work. Darker blue dots have potential to be leverage or underowned. We do know that Pickens and Nabers are likely carrying their teams in general. However there's not enough information to feel great about any of these guys yet tbh so we will continue down the trail.
Note that Pittsburg is favored to win by 6 tonight. I dont know why the Giants have so many prime time games. I trust them and then by game's end, I realize how bad Daniel Jones can be. rant over
Defense vs Receivers
I'm skipping to the defensive holes data next since we know that the receivers are important. Interestingly, Pittsburg ranks first against the WR1 position, which is Nabers. He is an elite talent for being a rookie so whether or not he will get open is going to be a thing today. Ownership will definitely drive considerations with him. I write this article live so therefore I give my first reaction to everything you see here.
On the flip side, NYG are horrible vs the WR1 spot and the WR3 spot. Basically Pickens looks like hes in a great situation if the QB has time to throw...
Infact, the reason that the Giants are not projected to lose by 10+ is likely due to their defensive line. They have been getting at Quarterbacks. Pittsburg has been doing similar and the Giants line sucks. I dont see any rushing advantages at all, so it seems both teams could struggle to move the ball tonight, thus the low game totals. Russell has been behind bad offensive lines in Seattle so he might be more experienced in running for his life for what its worth.
All of this to say - defenses and kickers are likely in play tonight.
When NYG has the ball:
The offense is so condensed to 3 key plays that we cant disregard them tonight as the 4 man stack (which I typically recommend 4 from one team, 2 from the other since that is a leverage build in itself). I see a long list of plays who leave points on the table. That is grounds for potential points, if we think Nabers outperforms the defense tonight for a touchdown. I'm sure Daniel Jones will target him one way or another.
I will say that Nabers is the highest projected owned player on the slate. More to come on my thoughts there, but if stacking the Giants for a value stack, Singletary or Tracy seem to provide some leverage in the flex right now.
When Pitt has the ball:
The leverage on Pitt players is a bit more spread, thus making it a little tougher to suggest 4 man stacks. Boswell is showing some flex leverage, and then a bunch of other players showing as leverage at the captain spot. Pickens looks like he has been leaving the most points on the table, but there is no leverage showing in playing him . That can be OK if paired with a decent leverage. Infact someone like Jaylen Warren is able to get you single digit ownership if taking pittsburg at captain. Pickens captain ownership isnt much less than Nabers. Maybe adding Van Jefferson makes things a little better. Ownership numbers may tighten up later.
Value
I am looking at which players tonight have the best chances to reach value at their price. Scotty Miller is 200, so if he plays he likely can, although his upside is like 5 pts. The Giants DST is interesting because they are next closest and projecting well. The 3rd name I'll call out is Hyatt as a low owned contender for my lineups, depending on how I wish to stack the rest of it.
Leverage
Realistically I think Nabers or Pickens ends up being the top owned captain. We will have to make a decision on which one to fade IMO. My strategy is usually to fade the top owned captain. If you have fade Nabers, there has to be a reason for it and someone else that benefits from it that can be played.
If Nabers fails, its likely because Pittsburg defense dominates Daniel Jones. There is also the idea that running backs and kickers get the points that Nabers needs for his value. The downside though is that Nabers usage is extremely high and volume trumps anything.
On the flip side, Pickens could be the failure point tonight too. If he fails, then maybe its due to the Giants succeeding on defense. Or the running game/ kickers working out just the same. His usage is much lower, but the secondary may be an easier matchup.
Snap Counts
Just referencing this to make sure the cheap guys I have in mind get snaps. Miller is trending downward so that doesnt feel good unless he breaks free for a long one. Thats tough to bet on with 7 snaps.
Good luck!
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