From a dime to $150 I went, but it wasn't the easiest of wins. Infact, if I have 1 more bogey, then I lose horribly this week.
My Lineup vs Final thoughts
I started the week heavily on Cantlay as the starting point. Around 3am I finally finished building this and got off of Cantlay and onto Rahm and Homa. What I dont quite recall is why I went Mitchell and English but I'll deal with them later. Less than a point separates the payline vs losing #AllParsMatter
Data
I narrowed down my personal pool to this group as i went to build out the core. Rahm was the lowest owned of the top plays after the final ownership update. I also noticed he had the most upside. Infact he was on all 4 tables. Funny enough, Cantlay came in as the actual lowest owned but projections tricked me there. The deciding factor to me aside from seeing Schef and Rahm in the leverage table below, was the thought that Rahm might try harder to defend against a LIV winner and he did. Other guys above the trend line were Theegala (pivot from Hatton), Day - who stunk rd 4, and Spieth, who I also sw trend up in leverage away from Rory. Wish I had played him vs Homa but I did not.
The genesis open was a correlated course and I believe I used that to determine English and Mitchell might be good plays. Good for making the cut, but horrible for my rd 3 and 4 experience.
If you look closely at the T10 table, about 5 of those guys actually came through as well and we will see those names in the lineups below.
Top plays
I sorted this by actual points to see who scored the most this year in relation to their stats. Obviously LIV players had no stats to work with but I will say around the green was important based on the number of positive numbers in that category. Fun fact; Phil was calculated as the overall top leverage play on the week. I never bothered to look at that :(
3 Milli Makers:
We can see the larger the field the tougher it is to 1st place. Lets see what each winner did:
$2,222
Rahm/Xander/Neiman/Theegala all on the chart in some way. Koepka made sense based on his history in majors and P Reed - actually has great history in the majors. Trusting LIV golfers would have been the way to get there.
$100
The $100 scored a little stronger, and that Rahm/Spieth combo won it for him. He went with 4 LIV golfers which is impressive. Gooch being the X factor for me and he was touted during the week by some, but not in my realm of plays I wanted to take personally.
$15
The top scoring of the 3 milli makers was the $15, where Rahm/Young/Hovland combo was good enough. His X factor was Kirk who (in hindsight) was only 7100 and just finished outside of the top 20. This allowed him to stay away from the danger zone of the 6k range, and required a 9k range fade to get there.
5 Main takeaways were
History did matter. See below (1) as Gooch, Reed and others with previous top 10s made this list of optimals.
Fading Rory is something I want to commit to the rest of the year, no matter what his stats look like. I wil make an exception if he reaches 10% ownership or less on a given week.
The LIV golfers in majors should be something to consider this year
Pay attention to who fell apart in the weather at this tournament. I will say that was a mentality thing that I wont risk in the future
Ownership and pivots mattered this week. Koepka was the highest owned in any winning lineup, but he was barely 20% or less depending on the contest.
(1)
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