Week 15 so our showdown series for this season is almost over. Can we land a top win this week? I intend to roll through the same process as there really isn't much new we can expect down the stretch at this stage. I will try and call out the patterns I've seen in terms of lineup construction along the way, but it will be up to you to decide which way you wish to be unique in these tournaments. Lets go
Updated: 6:46 pm CST
Expectations vs Salary
Updated note: Kyren Williams is seemingly lowest owned of the top guys which make me like hm quite a bit if I can get to him and Puka.
Over the past 3 weeks, Puka has been getting the most work of everyone on today's slate. One of the first trends I've seen quite often is that the top used player has been involved in the lineup way more often than not, and so I'm prepared to look him into a flex position at minimum. Last week, Chase was in this same position, and became a must play at the captain spot, but I am going to likely not do that unless his captain ownership projections are lower than expected. The next 3 players have similar usage over that time span, but we likely cant play all 3 without forcing 2 players under 2K into the lineup. I personally dont wanna do that, although last week that did happen as well. It also resulted in 80 ties for 1st place. The Question marks will be whether or not Kupp in the same price range actually gets more work this week or not. Isaac G. is also looking questionable right now, and his workload isn't quite measurable with 1 week of work either.
One key note on this week's graph, is that there is quite the separation between the dart zone and the price plays (aka not really anyone in the dead zone). Offhand I dont know if comparing charts to previous weeks might lead to similar lineup construction expectations or not, but it seems like we will need to find who is going to get the most opportunity under 4K this week.
Vegas vs Team Total Projections
My line and the Vegas line appear to be very close in projections. I have the game going over the 49.5 game total. Its not typical to get to 50 points without some explosive plays and playmakers.
Game Scripts
The Rams will face the tougher defense if everyone is healthy. Essentially their strength in running and passing is about the same, but they might find more success through the run game today than passing, as the 49ers rank 20th in DVOA run defense. Perhaps Kyren Williams is more interesting now, although running backs on a short week tend to be less efficient. Perhaps we should look at how many touches he received on Sunday. I believe the 49ers will find it easier to pass the ball, granted the Rams are equally bad against both? The issue there being they are down to their 3rd and possibly 4th string RB. It is a run first offense so we will have to see the inactives list and ownership tonight.
Run and Pass Blocking
It is estimated that the Rams should have plenty of protection heading into this game whether they run or pass. the 49ers may struggle a little with pass blocking, but Purdy tends to get the ball out quickly in cases like this.
Snap Counts
I'll be looking for cheap plays that have a decent snap count this week. Based on Patrick Taylor's price, it seems expected that Isaac is going to miss. Demarcus Robinson is playing quite a few snaps for under 5K, and some players are getting up to 20 snaps for under 2K. Since Tutu is the cheapest dart above the line, it is worth mentioning that he played 35 snaps last week so h will be considered.
Defense vs Receivers
A big key to the Rams is understanding who WR1 vs WR2 is. I feel like Kupp is the normal slot WR, but Stafford will sometimes throw to Puka even in tough coverage. This chart suggests to only play Puka or Stafford, depending on who WR2 actually is.
SF has WR3 and RB holes to exploit. That actually makes me want to lean SF 4-2 stacks.
WR VS CB Matchups
While these matchups are not guaranteed, we do get an idea of who the good WRs are vs the bad CBs most often. Puka is expected to go against Ward tonight who grades the worst of the CBs. I know Ward has been generally good in the past so I suspect there is a scheme issue in the 49ers causing this. However it is another vote of confidence that Puka should eat. Keep in mind that Demarcus Robinson should match up against Ward as well for 35% of his snaps and so that is a dart worth considering since he is producing explosive plays often.
The Rams dont necessarily have anyone who is good or bad at coverage so the idea would be to target the best 49ers WRs and hope they are better. Pearsall has graded out pretty poorly so perhaps a fade candidate.
Redzone Targets
Showdown touchdowns are more important than volume to me typically because we already know that the work is consolidated in these teams. The scores are going to separate lineups, especially if we find that we actually need 12 points per person as I project today. Demarcus Robinson being the number 1 redzone target for the rams over the past 5 weeks helps me with wanting to target him with Puka in the Rams offense. It is a thin play as I project 1 catch for Robinson, but if its a big play catch, I'm here for it. Jauan and Kittle on the other side are going to be interesting too, all leverage and ownership based below.
Where is the 49ers Leverage?
Updated note: Isaac G ownership is climbing with the injury news, so now Purdy and Kittle are showing the most leverage. Moody leverage is increasing as well.
Updated note: Kittle has captain leverage, along with Isaac Guerendo. Deebo being in the points left on the table section makes me intruiged to play him in flex. Pearsall has some appeal too.
The 49ers have 7 players with points left on the table, and that makes me want to lock in 4 49ers, which tends to be an underowned stack type.Purdy, Isaac, and Kittle all show captain leverage as of now. The goal is to get 12 points out of whoever we play tonight. Deebo and Moody also show flex leverage.
Where is the Rams Leverage?
Updated note: Puka starting to show captain leverage but at 18% owned, I cant and wont. I just hope hes not gonna pull the Jamarr on me like MNF went.
Updated note: Stafford captain makes a bit of sense if you wish to leverage the field. 3% ownership is significant, and we (I) like the idea of playing Puka. If doing that, I may fade Kyren for Blake Corrum and hope he gets extra run due to points left on the table. Then the kicker or defense could make sense too in a 4 stack situation. I see Kupp is lower owned as well but perhaps thats just me sticking to my strategy when I say I'm playing Puka.
Puka and Kyren both have captain leverage showing without flex leverage, making them 2 candidates for now for captain. Flex leverage begins with the Kicker.
Optimal Lineup
Check back for updates!
This is what shot out for me. On the surface its kinda cool to see Corum and such, but i am likely to get rid of Kyren and Rams defense from this and see what happens.
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