Since I had a top 5 finish in the only contest I had time to enter I figured I should blog about it. How did we get here?
The answer is the chart! I broke down my process and called out names along the way in the blog like Sterling and Volkanovski and Chimaev. High owned plays that just made sense per their odds. Towards the end of the night, I was already cashing though and I think in large part due to Malott and Oleinik. Why did I play those guys?
The beauty of this chart is I can see how I can possibly leverage the field from the green dots. I tend to go for 3 favorites and 3 underdogs since it is less likely that the field is building this way. Volk an Chimaev were a cut above the field to win - so 3rd favorite, I went for the top green dot in Malcott -> blindly I may add because I simply was in a hurry that day.
Then I needed 3 underdogs. Ladd seemed to have the highest odds for the underdogs in the 7k range so I tried it. He lost in a decision fortunately which gave me decent points for a loss. Sterling was just a potential value play per his 5 fight win streak. At 6900 in a main event fight where everyone thought Peter Yan, this one turned into some slight leverage as well. Oleinik turned out to be the top underdog odds to win and he was showing close to the trend line for value - as noted on the table to the right. So that is my lineup. How did the overall winner beat me? Leverage! I cant believe it :D
Chimaev ownership ends up being higher than projected by a lot in this contest first off. The winning lineup got away from him, which seems to open up Hernandez + Rodriguez, where Hernandez was above the value line as well. I did not leverage up top as well as I normally do, but this guy who took that leap ends up winning 10x more money than me for doing it well. No regrets from me though as I got a 16x return on my 20 mins + 12 bucks!
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