Gonna do a quick breakdown based on what we know today and see what happens.
Odds and Expectations
It seems that Chimaev has the best chance of win vs Usman which is kinda tough to say. He also has the highest ownership expected, mixed with Islam. An intruiging couple of fighters with dipping ownership are Mokaev and Volkanovski. In the weigh ins, Islam made claim that Volk is only there for the paycheck and while that may be true, he still has knockout power. Usman - had rumors floating about having bad knees and that unfortunately makes his status a bit tougher to understand. Fight 4 seems to have a high pace and high finish odds so that is likely the one to make a priority.
Situations and Leverage
The price tag appears to be the reason Mokaev is tough to get to, but he has one of the higher odds with lower expectations in ownership. Aliskerov seems to also be priced up, with high upside and finish odds. Decision to be made here in the 9K range, which is where I think leverage matters the most.
Fight Violence
We can look at the pace of strikes and estimate that fight 4 is the one that should be the most violent (Alvs vs Aliskerov). Dumas vs Azaitar is another that I will look into just in case it remains underowned.
Mismatchups
Walker has the most significant reach advantage. The problem here is he goes for submissions quite a bit and may not use it to its potential (striking) and that makes him vulnerable to a loss. Infact Ankalaev has a 50% chance of winning by KO per Vegas odds despite the reach disadvantage.
Aliskerov has a 4 inch reach advantage and that plays well to his Vegas odds of a win. Vegas has him at an 85% chance of winning and then high odds of sub or KO victory type so he is certainly in play.
Mokaev has the reach advantage and then high sub odds. He also has better striking accuracy and defense. The troublesome spot here is that his takedown defense is showing 0% so Elliot may actually game plan that, which makes him potentially higher risk.
Projections and Upside
If looking at upside, Usman has been in the game a long time and therefore may have the most on the slate. Hard to trust when he has lost 2 in a row and then taking a strong opponent on short notice. If he wins though, he is undoubtedly the optimal. Several fighters have significant win streaks going and that makes them tough to bet against. Most fighters I target will have 100 pt upside this week. Dumas may be the one exception as I think his finish odds are decent despite his ownership and his projection. Good luck!
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