Looking at this card a bit earlier than usual because I assume I'm a bit busy this weekend. While I dont have ownership numbers to calculate leverage for this event, I still found some success in the system I'm using so I will share those insights.
Odds vs Salary
First we put the salaries and odds to a trendline to see where there might be some value in the winners vs losers. Talbott has the highest odds and salary. Sometimes that translates to the highest ownership but when theres a PPV that may not be the case due to the 5 round main event targets. The main event likely ends in another KO (rematch) but they are low priced so I do expect that ownership to rise. Looking at fighters in no mans land - I find Silva down there so I will look at that fight closely. Jiri is also a cheap play for the odds value.
Upside vs Odds
Again, not able to see ownership or calculate leverage, but what I can do is figure out who I think has the most upside on the card. Jiri and Diego both look like the top two for upside so I will likely force their fights into my lineups. Usually you want 3 favorites and 3 underdogs in GPP so we will want to look for advantages next that can lead to upsets.
Size Mismatches
I only see 3 fights where the reach is significantly different from the opponent. Chiasson, Page, and Fili. If any of them have punching power, it could be advantageous. Page is an underdog on the card and expected to lose by KO or decision. I think hes quite fast and lengthy so even with Garry's fight win streak going, I think that could be an interesting pivot potentially. Fili and Chiasson are favorites.
Good luck to those playing!
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