This is everything I use to win. I will add notes to describe what you are looking at as time permits. But we only have 2 hrs so I dont anticipate too much more in updates as I build my own lineups now.
Just an overview for the twitter screenshot.
Projections and potential Upside
Of these guys, Blaydes vs Aspinall looks mighty important. I will play one or the other in every lineup. Ownership likely favors Aspinall because he has monster odds of getting the finish. However there is a leverage opportunity for the bold person who takes Blaydes. If he wins he is definitely winning by KO and going to be optimal no matter what. If he loses, just hope he survives into the early 3rd round which is asking a bit.
My next pick will be fight 4, where Rodriguez vs Duncan matters. Spoiler alert; Duncan has a reach advantage so my lean may go his way but both fighters could be underowned, yet only one will win unless some no contest bs happens this week.
Next up, I got Nathaniel Wood as being interesting. 100 point upside and 31% chance of finishing his opponent.
One final play of decent but lesser interest may be Sam Patterson with a 66% chance of finishing Crosbie. The prob I see there is his price yet he is down on the upside list. I can see them odds leading him to being more optimal than not.
Upside only matters when you win so careful who you side with. Seems like lots of fights could finish today. Also note that ownership is not expected to be accurate - it is experimental as I figure out how to estimate it and some guys with 0 clearly are estimated incorrectly rn.
Violence Indicators
We discussed these fights already but fights 2, 12 , 4, and 6 have the highest chances of bringing violence. The other fights can be played especially when targetting cheap value plays with high potential for significant strikes or decision type wins.
Odds over Salary
Volume Finders
Fight 3 isn't one I talked about yet, but it has the potential for lots of strikes. I dont quite know how to project this fight because Paddy isn't usually facing guys in this realm. Can this one end in a decision? Underwhelming? I am not so sure what to do here but there is a bit of expected volume.
Projections
Underdogs with some decent odds
Same guys from other charts. I guess for my first build, I'll just build a lineup with 2 or all 3 of these guys.
Size Mismatches
The reach advantage over Rodrigues has me a bit nervous on playing him much but I will have some. Bukauskas was a bit green on my leverage chart so maybe something worth doing there. The only issue is he is projecting low and low ceiling and lower odds so thats why hes leverage. but maybe he is the shocker today.
Comments