The PPV cards tend to be my favorite for balancing odds and leverage. Lets see what we have and check back later as this page progressively updates as time permits.
Overview
The intention of this chart and all of my views is to give insight to specific circumstances and see if we can draw insights that lean us against or with the field for certain plays. Take a look at every chart title for an idea of what it refers to first, and then the data points that follow.
Updated: 2:25 pm
Odds and Ownership
Background: The two views in this screenshot give a few different thoughts into one view.
Best Bet considers the fighter's success odds of winning and I compare that to where ownership is landing. Finding someone underowned like Claudia is easier when you see the lengthier bar on top for a fighter. The higher on the list, the better the odds of success for that fighter as well, so it should be read top down.
On the right side, I set this view up with violence in mind. That is, Finish Odds look at the chances of a fight ending with a submission or KO (left to right). Then I compare the fight's ownership to see if the fight itself was overlooked. One thing I will eventually update is the line that follows the fighter. This is my projected pace rank and unfortunately for now, the lower the line, the better, meaning fight number 5 (Jordain vs Gracie) has potential to be the number 1 / fastest pace / most strikes thrown). That can lead to points even if the fight goes the distance at times.
Evloev odds are quite high for a win so thats going to be the cash chalky play. Khaos Williams however is looking like a pivot potentially, with Dober and Ribeiro right behind.
Value and Leverage
There are 4 visuals here and the one I start with is the scatter plot. THe greener the dot, the more leverage you can find with that fighter. Sometimes leverage works both ways as in, quick path to the top or bottom if that person loses after getting one punched. It happens every week but thats the risk reward system we work from.
The table to the right looks at the value vs the fighter's optimal percentage, which shouldnt be ignored.
Bottom left, I try and put more context around the numbers above and then on the bottom right, is a consolidated list of fighters who might have high odds for their ownership. Khaos, Dober and Andrade would be the first 3 fighters I consider on that note, because I want high probability situations and lower ownership as I build a lineup.
The scatter plot says that Phil Hawes could be a cheaper value play based on his position on the scatter plot. Parker Porter might have some leverage as well. When there are main events involved, some folks end up getting overlooked.
The greenest dot on this chart belongs to Claudia Ribeiro, which means I will play her in at least 1 lineup no matter what. GPP is about leverage on the field and thats what I'm building towards. I just hope she doesnt get one punched like last week's leverage.
Fight Pace vs KO Potential
Background: Points in the UFC come from 3 categories:
1. Winning the fight first and foremost
2. Finishing the fight early (KO or submission)
3. Volume
This chart helps me measure the volume of both fighters from previous fights. Its obviously not perfect as matchups and fight strategies sometimes go out the window, but it is an estimate of which fights I think can finish inside the distance vs the projected number of punches thrown. The right side aligns the fight number to the table. We know there are two main events today and therefore ownership will be on fights 1 and fight 2. Fights 3, 4 and 9 seem to pull in quite a bit of ownership as a whole. Fights 10, 8 and 12 have the highest potential for a finish with less ownership for whatever reason. It could be a pricing issue.
Main events have 2 extra rounds of work so they are difficult to fade. Gotta pick your spots though.
Projections
Projecting in the UFC is one of the roughest most inaccurate things that I do take part in. LIterally an eye poke or nut shot changes the entire projection and there is just not enough fights logged to get a real estimate to be honest. But what I can do is give you an idea of how fighters do and have done in averages. I reference projections but definitely do not optimize on them in this sport. Upside matters and even that changes fight to fight just because someone goes down to an accident or intentional blow.
WIth that disclaimer out there, I see a few fighters on the upside of things: Andrade, Evloev, and Hawes, and maybe Khaos all have the potential to be the top scorer based on their previous work. The vegas odds and ownership agree with that being Evloev, but thats not what we are here for -> GPP is all about risk tolerance and being unique at the top is important to me. The two highest priced fighters on the slate may get it done, but what if they do not? Then Andrade or underdog Hawes then become better values, and thats a tournament defining moment to me.
Matchups
Its important to know how these guys and gals line up with each other as a few inches of advantage can make it extremely difficult. Some folks are tall and lengthy but cant fight, so it is worth noting that I don't always pursue the advantage. THe one that stands out the most is Nzechukwu vs Clark. How are these guys in the same weight class when one is 5 inches taller with like 8 inches of reach advantage? If Clark wins this, Kennedy should retire.
Strategy
Based on this being a PPV, despite lots of ownership in this space, I am leaning towards forcing a fighter from both match into my lineups. I do believe at 8000, scoring 100 pts is a good possible outcome for any of the 4 fighters in a win here so I will eat that chalk and hope for the best. That leaves 4 spots to choose from. Note, I don't allow fighters from the same fight into my lineups. It works out in some cases but I just don't take that type of risk in UFC. I'm leaning Sterling + Belal as my favorite two but they are all close imo.
I then need to review leverage from above. Easiest way to find leverage is the green dots so I will fill in Ribeiro with decent win odds/low ownership as my 3rd piece.
With salary remaining, I believe I need at minimum 1 more underdog in the 7k range. Someone with the upside to get me 100 points. Phil Hawes? If not him, I still need 10x value out of whoever it is. Jandiroba seems intruiging as an underdog as she stays busy in the ring. Not likely to get a finish per the odds but perhaps that will be the move today.
If you build based on what I just noticed, we likely have the same lineup today. I just hope you tag me in your post if we tie in the money tonight!
Fighters I'm gravitating towards today
I dont usually put my picks out there - as to not influence, but I added a thumbs up to the fighters I'm leaning towards playing the most. Lets see what happens!
Note I want to get to Evloev or Andrade due to the upside in some capacity. Evloev is a beast in his wins by decision so I am NOT going to avoid his point potential. There is room to play some Yan to me so I am taking that too.
Good luck!
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