UFC Fight nights typically have some guys fighting that Ive never heard of. However we still have data points that are good enough to use to build an intruiging lineup today. Lets see how it looks now but check back before the card starts for the most updated data.
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Updated 3:15 PM CST
Odds vs Ownership
On the left, its ideal to start from the top and move down for your fighters. The main event looks to be likely to finish so we will assume that fight will be optimal. 5 other spots to fill.
I see fight number 2, Muniz has the 2nd best percentage but not the 2nd highest ownership which puts Muniz in play for me. On the right side, fights 1 , 6, 5, 2 and 3 (last 6 fights of the card) happen to have the best vegas odds for finishes this week and therefore I may look to stack the back end of the card in my lineup (favorites and underdogs).
Leverage
The greener the dot, the more leverage you can achieve with that fighter. The higher above the trend line, the more value you can get for the odds of a win on that fighter. Suarez stands out the most, although will also carry the most ownership and salary most likely. This means that you may be locking yourself into some massive ties if Suarez is optimal, and also means that a fade might be worthwhile if some reason that fight ends up being a letdown. I may stay even with the field on that play.
Volume Plays
One thing I like to look at and predict is which fights might have the most volume thrown, as this leads to both KOs and points even in a draw. Fights 1 6 5 2 and 3 have the most potential for KO per the odds. Fight 4 has high volume expected but low chance of a KO (yet modertately higher side of ownership). I'll be most intruiged by fights 5 and fight 3 (Sakai vs Mayes and Malott vs Lainesse) outside of the main event.
Underdogs
Personally I think having 3 underdogs in a lineup most weeks is ideal. 10x value is also ideal. Upside of a fighter is based on a win. Some dont have enough detail for me to project. However I do believe that every fighter you choose today should have a pathway to at least 80 points if you want to have a shot at a win. Lainesse and Gonzalez are showing some leverage on my side but perhaps this is where I will make my best or worst fade decisions of the slate today.
Summary/Top Draftkings picks
Joe Solecki: With a high projection of 88.50 and a salary of 9400, Solecki could be a strong pick for your lineup. He also has high ownership and a good win-odds percentage, which suggests that other players might be picking him as well.
Tatiana Suarez: Suarez has a projection of 90.10 and a salary of 9600. She also has a high ownership percentage and a good win-odds percentage, making her a popular pick among players.
Nikita Krylov: Krylov has a projection of 82.01 and a salary of 8700. He has a good win-odds percentage and moderate ownership, making him a solid pick for your lineup.
Trevor Peek: With a projection of 78.41 and a salary of 8900, Peek could be a strong pick for your lineup. He has a high win-odds percentage and moderate ownership.
Andre Muniz: Muniz has a projection of 78.04 and a salary of 9100. He has a high win-odds percentage and moderate ownership, making him a solid pick for your lineup.
Augusto Sakai: Sakai has a projection of 64.44 and a salary of 8300. He has a good win-odds percentage and low ownership, making him a good pick for a contrarian lineup. His projection leaves a bit of wonder but the upside to get there does exist.
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