Not a ton of time to work with this week but wanted to get the visuals out in the event they help.
Best Bets and Fight Finish Probabilities
So what do we know? Aspinal is likely to be the highest priced, highest upside, and highest owned fighter on the slate in the main event. Judging by all of that, there is a strong case to play him today. However, my first read is always to see what a pivot looks like first and what outcomes make a pivot work. Note he has an 82% win probability from the current odds and so I dont know if playing the 6500 guy and hoping for a draw is the best of moves. The fight pace is above average and finish odds are also extremely high, but next up would be Muniz, Alverez and McCann as options. They all have 100 point upside, and all showing a little under owned as potential leverage to Aspinal if pivoting way.
Fights 6, 3, 14 and 12 appear to have low odds of a finish, which make them good targets for underdogs in 1 or 2 of them.
Leverage and Odds
So obviously we have Aspinal with negative leverage, yet has us in a chokehold with his projected upside. Theres possibly two fighters that could pair with him to offset the leverage - and those would be green dots in Filho and Vierra. Filho doesnt have much projection behind him while Vierra does at the higher price/lesser value. Let me know what you think of their matchups today if you have time.
Fights and Pace
The main event seems important enough to target. I have a longshot thought of playing them both in a lineup, in the event the pace is high enough to get the underdog to optimal in a draw.. that build works out 1 or 2 times a year so not likely but wanted to mention that as a deep shot way to go contrarian and offset the high price/ownership of Aspinal (of 20 lineups I may just do that one time fyi).
Projections
10x and 100 point upside are my goals in every fight. Like last week, there arent a ton of big numbers in upside and the number of 9K fighters is pretty high, which may point to getting the right cheap fighters in order to eally separate.
Live Dogs
The above 5 fighters are all underdogs that are the most live for upsets today per their finish odds (top 2 submission odds, bottom 3 are live for KO). Craig and Ashmoz are most interesting because of their calculatable upside.
Size Mismatches
We have 4 fights this week where the fighters have a decent advantage in size. I came into the week liking McCann more but it seems Julija might be a tougher matchup for her. The submission odds on Julija are reasonably high as well, especially with a low takedown defense for McCann, so maybe that is a live dog that is live for good reason.
The next fight down, Wood looks like the better fighter despite going at at least 5 inch reach disadvantage. Fili has decent take down defense but it seems Wood is better at defending himself slightly here. Then in the Roberts fight, it seems he is the better fighter but no other real significant differences. Alverez will want to keep this fight on the feet and get the KO as his path to victory. The reach advantage looks good enough to make that happen.
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