Alright we are looking at 12 fights today, with some very good fights ahead. I can see some decent chances of finishes today so navigating the fight landscape will be important. Lets see how things look from a handful of different angles.
Updated: 2:20 pm CST
Odds vs Situations
From an odds perspective, Petroski, Rodriguez and Garry all look like top plays for wins that could go underowned. The co main event is intruiging as well, with a bit of pace expected and therefore the upside of the fight seems like something of interest. Ownership will follow.
On the right side, fights 7, 2, 10, and 1 are all fights we will want to pay close attention to. From left to right, these are fights which have the most odds of having a finish. The furthest right, these fights have the highest chance of being decisions. Any time that happens, then pace of strikes and takedowns then will be important, especially for underdogs. As of now, I'm not really feeling any of those 4 underdogs though.
Leverage
The scatterplot is going to highlight the value and leverage plays for these fighters vs their peers. Petroski has the most value for his odds, while Silva and Rodriguez also look strong. Garry is the highest priced play on the slate and that makes it difficult to get to him, leaving him slightly underowned. Either Garry or Bautista could have the lower ownership today of the top odds plays. I could see an intruiging leverage play with Bautista if fading either Sterling or Zhang today. O'malley has the most value on the cheaper end, especially if he wins. His path to victory is actually through KO in a 5 rd 5. So if he connects early and wins, I'd probably expect that Bautista play to potentially have more legs.
Fight Pace
The Rodriguez fight has the highest potential for KO and the pace is one of the highest. I could see myself prioritizing that fight over the Petroski fight even. The Garry fight going underowned as well for the expectations in pace.
MisMatchups
Lets take a peek at each of these fights and align to potential strategy/odds to finish.
Sterling will be fighting a taller opponent. His clear path to victory is to get this down to the ground and go for the submission. Sterling will be highest owned on the slate most likely, although one thing I find interesting is that statistically, O'Malley has shown better defense than Sterling historically, and better takedown accuracy. I believe that may have more to do with the opponents he has faced than his actual defense but it is worth noting that it is statistically showing this way. I am sticking with
Magmy is on short notice, but has 6 inch reach advantage against Garry. His volume isnt great but he does have the better defense. I refuse to take fighters on short notice and therefore siding with Garry, who is givin a 50% chance of winning by KO today.
Vera has a 5 inch reach advantage. Seeing that both fighters have good takedown defense, and low odds of a submission win, I expect that this fight stays on the feet, which means the advantage to Vera seems real.
Vegas says Tavares here, but Weidman has a 4 inch reach advantage here. The interesting thing is that Vegas gives Tavares a 44% chance of winning by KO. The stats have them pretty close, and so I am unsure why that may be the case. Upside wise, Tavares projection is not that great either. Similar to what I'm seeing with Bautista, Taveres could be a pivot if one of the top two fighters fail and score 10 pts.
Gibson has a 5 inch reach advantage here, but he hasnt been accurate in his striking. He has also lost 3 of 4 UFC fights, but he is givin about 20% chance of winning by KO or decision as an underdog. I think theres worse plays to make today but I will have like 1 or 2 lineups of 20 just in case he connects on a magic punch today. He has more upside than Katona, who likely wins this by decision at best, through wrestling, which means I dont think he gets to value personally.
Meershart has the reach advantage here. However Petroski is going to go for takedowns and get them, as his best path to victory. While both fighters have some slight paths to success in their strengths, Petroski looks to be the most solid in advantage from a scoring perspective.
Lee has a 4 inch reach advantage, which means Silva will need to go for takedowns to have success. I think Lee's defense is a little on the softer side with regards to takedowns, although Silva hasnt historically gone for them. Basically neither advantage aligns well to their normal fighting success here. Silva has slighter upside but the price is also high, so I'm not likely to target this fight a ton.
Projections
2 fighters on short notice and they are yellow. A handful of fighters with 100 pt upside. Then theres a few guys that just dont strike me as having 10x value but may still end up being intruiging like Tavares.
Underowned plays
I am trying to spot the plays that could potentially pivot off of the ownership in this case. Zhang and Sterling bring the most ownership, and what this tells me is that we must take a heavy stand. Either you are taking Sterling with the ownership, or you have plenty of opportunity to get off him with others in his range. Tavares happens to be one of them, and it is odd, because his upside isnt close. However the scenario where you climb the leaderboard is if the Sean O'Malley narrative holds true for a quick KO, and having an 80 pts from Tavares is > a 0-20 point performance from Sterling in that scenario. Will that happen? We don't know that, but whether or not you want to play a correlation like that - is up to your risk tolerance.
Comentarios