Just doing a data dump since I'm planning to build a lineup. Not sure it will have a ton of explanation but I will try.
Odds vs Ownership and Violence
I'm looking on the left for standout pivot potentials and then on the right for fights with the violence. Fights 5, 9, 4, and 3 all seem to have my interest off the bat, as the fighters with higher odds and lower than expected ownership are those. Then we have fights 2 and 3 showing as least potential to finish. Those fights sometimes can produce value if the volume is expected so that is something to watch for, especially with regards to underdogs.
Size Mismatches
Adesanya has a Reach advantage of note and hes a great striker, so no question in my mind he is going to use that in this fight. Du Plessis submission odds are quite high which kinda fit the strategy he will need - takedowns. However Adesanya has great takedown defense. I'm a bit torn because both have been unstoppable at times. Plessis has been better lately, winning 5 in a row, while Adesanya has been very shaky, most recently in his last fight -> just didnt look good. It has been a while and I havent seen Adesanya lose twice so this may just come down to who I think fits the lineup better, but initial lean is that I take the lower owned.
Erceg seems to have a height advantage. Not sure if that is helpful since the reach advantage goes to France. Erceg is expected to win by decision or submission, although France appears to have elite takedown defense, so that might be a stretch in actually getting submitted.
Hooker has a great reach advantage here, BUT Gamrot is expected to win by submission while Hooker's KO odds are kinda pedestrian. Both of these guys have elite takedown defense which makes submissions tougher to get to.
I have to also call out Prates for his reach advantage of 7 inches. He is on a 3 fight win streak and high KO odds, so I like that.
Another mismatch that I don't typically target is the weight mismatch. Walker is showing 25 lbs heavier than Tafa, although Tafa is expected to win by KO. I am not so sure I can trust those odds. Tafa does have great takedown defense in his fights so far, while Walker's is non existent.
Burns has a good reach advantage over Jenkins as well. Surprisingly Burns odds are almost non existent in this fight, as he shows around a 9% chance of winning by submission - as his best bet. Jenkins has shown pretty good takedown defense so far though so I have to think Jenkins will survive those attempts while trying to get his own takedowns. I guess I'm not a fan of this fight, although Jenkins could have some leverage on the card if he somehow gets passed Burns's arms.
Odds vs Salary
Du Plessis odds show he is the best value with the underdog salary. Seems the leverage is in paying up for a fighter today in the 9K range but its not great leverage to me. All over 30% owned.
Other situations
Finish odds are favoring Nolan, Jenkins and Rozenstruik the most.
Upside
I believe fight 4 is going to be in the optimal either fighter can get there because it will finish with 100 point upside. I also think there is value in getting to Nolan, the most expensive fighter on the slate. Everything else is going to be tricky. O'Neil has the highest upside but it is likely to end in a decision which makes that a tricky underdog to target.
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