This article is geared towards finding plays that can help separate from the field in your Draftkings lineup construction. Usually 2 pivots are what I am looking for. A card like this full of weird names will draw tons of ownership based on vegas odds to certain names. However this gives us an opportunity in itself to be more contrarian than usual.
updated: 3:11 pm CST
Best Bets for Wins and Finishes
Top to bottom, we see the fighters expecting wins and left to right, we see the fights expecting violence. Infact the main event looks to be in the range of must play (assuming no cancellations...). Fight 10 has high odds of a KO with CJ, in a high paced fight. And then we have Njokuani and Kape loopking like top 2 fighters on the card with higher odds than ownership. I think today you will want over 750 DK points or in that range if you wish to get first which means you will want many finishers in your lineups (including upset victories).
Leverage
Looking for green dots for leverage, we see several in the underdog space who could be seen as leverage plays. I will likely have 3 underdogs in my primary lineup today (and every week to be honest). Kape is my favorite play on the slate just based on how things are shaping up here. Chidi has lots of point potential and therefore will try to get there as well. Giles could be an interesting pivot if not playing Sandagen, while the other 4 green dots appear to be good pivots away from Vera.
Volume Fights
Looking at KO potential next to estimated volume, I believe fights 10, 6 and/or 5 have the best chances of a fighter getting to the optimal, especially if an underdog wins one of them. Not sure I want to test the waters with Lacerda (Da Silva in DK) but... it would be a hail mary pivot off of ownership if going full leverage today. This guy has been finished in all 3 of his UFC fights so that is a tall order.
Underdogs
Perez (vs Kape) and Pineda and Vera (main event) are all under underdogs who have shown upside so perhaps will try to get some combination of them in my player pool.
Pivot Potential
I highlighted some plays that have pivot potential here. I am building a rule today to force the main event in every lineup I play. And if I play one of those fighters in any given lineup, I will pivot off the other fighter. The cheaper pivots are plenty but all higher risk than say Giles vs Parsons. Single entry build has me leaning towards a Vera build for that reason despite liking Sandhagen more.
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