Just now getting home from classes and I wanted to share this with those who are looking for a bit of violence today. I know I am. Not much time to spare so lets dive into things.
Updated: 1:12 pm CST
Odds vs Fight
In glimpsing through, Brito is the most likely candidate to win and half the field seems to know that. Anytime you are the most pricey on the slate with the highest ownership, the initial thought I have is whether or not I can win without that one guy in my lineup? What happens if he wins and doesnt score enough to be optimal, or loses? Those are the odds and factors I care about in single entry builds.
The main event looks important today. Fights 7 and 11 could be interesting as well from a finishing perspective. Infact fights 1, 3, 5 and 8 are all expecting decent fight paces so there could be floor points involved in those matches.
Leverage
With ownership updated, we can start to see some potential leverage. Leverage can sometimes put you on the top of the leaderboard but it can also bury you if selecting the wrong leverage. In fight 11, Ruziboev is that leverage piece to give the max leverage today at 8% ownership. Why 8% Maybe because he is going to get his ass kicked by Brunno? In other words, look closely at that fight because I am not sure on either of those fighters, but one is significantly higher owned than the other, which is a key decision point today in whether or not you will compete for first or give yourself a sand burial. As of now, I have no info on either actual fighters to lean aside from the leverage.
Projections
100 points is the goal from all my fighters. There are 4 fighters who are coming in on short notice so that could shake things up, including Ruziboev, so that settles my interest in that leverage. Benoit, Romanov, and Brito seem to have the most upside on the slate.
Volume vs Violence
Brito's fight has the most expected KO percentage but I cant project a ton of volume here. Fight 5, Bonfim vs Benoit may have a bit more in terms of strikes but signficantly lower KO probability. Sees the main event is a must play on that note. Fight 11 is also interesting but high ownership.
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