Getting some data out early as I debate whether or not to go back to the NFL draft festivities today. Whether I'm here or there, don't let that stop you from winning with my data and process.
Current: 2:01 pm CST
Odds Ownership and Pace Ranks
Update: Vieira may come in a bit under owned as the top odds of a win so that sorta brings new interest to him to some extent. There is also a chance that Simon has less ownership than Yadong so there looks to be a guessing game in the main event.
On the left side I am looking at player odds of success vs expected ownership (which is too early to trust entirely). Vierra has top fighter potential overall. Edger has the first potential leverage spot from the top but check back on that later.
On the right side, I see that the main event is likely necessary to be in the optimal lineup because it is the most likely to end with a finish of some sort. Fights 6, 3, 5 and 2 are all interesting. High chance I build my lineup around the final fights today.
Leverage
The top 5 fights have some ownership but 1 of the fighters isnt looking like a great value (Caio) and then 2 of the other 4 fighters carry less ownership as of early morning. Fight number 2 could be something where taking the underdog leverages the field but you will have to find if Michal has a path to victory or not before jumping on that.
Fight Volume
We spoke about the main event being the most likely to end in a finish. 85% of lineups will have one or the other so you still need to get different. Fight 5 is the most interesting for now due to the pace and potential for a finish.
Projections
Not all of these fighters have a projection or upside that I can truly make due to their lack of history. However, I do have a bit of a guideline number for everyone. IMO, streaks matter, upside matters and value matters. Only 10 fighters are showing the ability to get over 100 points today, which means there may be lower scoring today than most weeks. Targetting around 680 points is what I would do for upside to get 1st in a GPP. Someone that is likely under the radar is Marcus McGhee and thats because he is on short notice. However his KO potential is high. I may take a shot there today and hope for the best.
Pivot worthy
There really arent a ton of areas to pivot off the top chalk (underlined), but there are some mid and cheap pivot options out there it seems. Perhaps today is about risk tolerance as the chalk plays are somewhat difficult to avoid.
Josh Quinlan may have a weird situation facing a long armed fighter. He is highly owned so losing by KO would absolutely be leverage when the guy he faces is only 1/3 of the ownership. It is asking a bit but I think one of these long shots may be where its at today.
Good luck!
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