Its time to pivot to the UFC once again. Lets take a peek at how the odds can align to low owned but good lineups. A couple fights have canceled on the week but here we are.
Odds vs Fights
There are two main events on the card and so priority immediately should go to fights 1 and 2. They have high odds of finishing and scoring 100+ points just like we need. The floor is just higher than the rest. That does mean that some fights will go underowned elsewhere. Jauregui and Whitiker are the two fighters who I think have the best win odds with the least ownership. Fight 8 looks to be voted most likely of all fights to go the distance. It doesnt mean avoid the fight, but one strategy I take in fights like that is to target the underdogs, as they always go overowned. Any time the judges get their hands on the outcome, it leans closer to 50/50 and an underowned fighter is always my preference in the mix. That fighter in this case? Denise Gomes. Lets go!
Odds vs Leverage
As seen in PGA and other sports, the higher up the chart the better odds of success. Saaiman has the top spot. Intruigingly Bo Nickel is supposed to not only win, but he he has an 85% chance at a finish per his vegas odds. I guess the guy he fights sucks but even then - I am going to look for other options if it makes sense to. I suppose one strategy could be to take the top 3 fighters and fade both main events. I may do that in a dart lineup but not something I really see panning out to b honest. Other values might be in Jimmy Crute and Du Plesis as underdogs.
Mismatches
I only saw two with noteable differences in reach. Kirk and Ross both have greater than 4 inch reach advantages. If they know how to fight they should be able to touch up on their opponents faces a lil more for points.
Strikes vs KO Potential
Here I estimate the total strikes in a fight and figure out where the pace means KO potential. The two main events clearly have that potential for lots of blows in 5 rounds. However a lower owned alternative may exist in fights 10 and fight 11. (note fight 5 didnt have a ton of history to work with in Woodburn so that number is off). Fight 4 isnt bad either. Turner and Hooker fight seems likely to end up with lots of blows or a KO.
Projections
UFC simply doesnt have enough fight history to thoroughly project the points on most fighters. However 10x and 100 point upside is kinda necessary on a card like this. Also worth noting that I lack confidence in any fighter who has short notice, granted Taira odds are pretty much out of this world too.
Good luck!
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