Now that the superbowl is over, we can look into a few other sports, time permitting. This week I give you UFC Fight Night 219. I take a unique approach to picking the best fighters on the slate. Lets see what we have here:
Updated: 2:30 CST
Odds vs Ownership
Updated: Zac is still my favorite play up top. Carpenter ownership is increasing which makes me second guess him, but I do see a path clearer for Hernandez now.
First peek, I like to see which fighters have the best odds for success and pair them up with their ownership projected on the left. Erin Blanchfield seems to be the top play on the slate. However the ownership is slightly above the odds of success. This is normal for the title event as it does have more points involved, so naturally it is more popular. On the right side, I try to find which fights are expecting the most violence from left to right. Fight 2 is intruiging and so is Zac Pauga, as a -200 favorite. He is likely my favorite of favorites to start the day. Fight 7 appears to be something that is going to end in a draw. In a draw, the one time I am ok playing those fights are when the volume is high. Underdogs in draws are more likely to reach value as well.
Odds vs Salary
Update: Hernandez and Lins look like the strongest leverage plays up top, with Hernandez providing a little more value and upside than Lins.
Erin and Zac seem to have extremely high odds for their salary and will be popular fighters today. Carpenter and Hernandez are also intruiging as far as favorites are concerned. We will need some underdogs to complete this lineup and unfortunately they are not the best of values right now, unless we see some upset KOs.
Just table formatted on the left, next to the fighters who might provide some leverage today on the right.
Underdogs
From an upside perspective there are about 5 fighters who seem to have the upside you want. Fighters on a streak and fighters with 10x potential are typically my favorite plays.
Best Fights
I'm mostly going to have interest in fights 2 and fight 4 today. The amount of volume on fight 2 - with Zac makes me think he or his opponent will get there in points one way or another. The Pracino fight is a bit concerning due to the low projection on the upside, unless he gets a finish, which may force a little more Knight for me in my player pool. Fight 11 is high on potential for a finish. However it is low on output, which means you are banking on a KO if you take Carpenter or Ronderos. Looking back at the scatter plot, I am likely to take Carpenter.
Ideally this page will update 1 hour prior to lock today. Good luck!
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