Odds vs Ownership
There are a couple fights on the right side that favor going to a decision finish this week. There are cases where fighters in those fights are still optimal based on volumn but otherwise I'm hoping for KOs. Fights 5, 3, 9 and 13 stand out the most for those purposes (outside of the main event). That makes Bautista, Harris and Krylov stand out first, with Romanov showing a bit of leverage in fight number 2. Deeper leverage may be available with Nurmagomedov and Aldrich.
Leverage and Value
In the scatter plot, the names highest above the line have the most value present. 2-4 of those names are usually good to target. Last week, the bottom righthand chart was ideal for picking players as most of those plays won their fights with good value.
Volume plays
Fights 5, 3, 2 and 13 are all looking to bring volumn this week with good odds for a finish. Underdogs can be in play in these matchups too, especially in a fight going the distance, as then it is (many times) a coin flip, which should favor leverage with the underdogs.
Projections
Gooden is a late add. Everyone else - I calculate based on the data I have and not all of them have enough history for a valid projection. 10x value is ideal, and I am likely to take on 3 underdogs if I can.
Live Upset Picks
These are my top 5 picks for upset value today.
Deeper Dive
There are 5 leverage points in which you can achieve leverage on a play in the same salary range as another play. The underlined plays are the highest owned plays. All are highly owned for a reason, but at least one of those guys will fail. The leverage plays are less popular for a reason as well, yet I think at least one of the 5 will succeed and become an optimal play. Which one? We know Ryan Spann is one of the live dogs so maybe him? Said has the highest odds of the 5 so maybe he is the guy. The other 3? I dunno but if you do, that could be your path to victory.
Karl has a 30 lb disadvantage in his matchup per the UFC site - maybe one had to cut or gain weight to make this happen so weigh ins are likely intruiging. Odds have moved towards Karl so maybe they know something here.
I dont have any data really on Anton so project him so hes a bit scary for being such a green dot. I will say he has scored best using takedowns so maybe hes just a value guy that can score without a finish.
Tale of the tape shows that Aldrich is the more likely to win this fight. Infact I see he has a 26% chance at winning by KO, with only 17% ownership. That is likely due to the 52% chance of winning by decision. I will have some just in case. He seems a bit overpriced for his history of scoring though which is why he is so low on the chart. He has never hit 94 pts which is required for value, but if he sneaks an early KO that could change.
Summary:
One thing I may do is set a rule that if I play Peter Yan, I am also going to play Ryan Spann, because that indicates that the Spann correlation has a higher chance of success.
If Merab wins, then that hints at a Yan loss and therefore I can see the path of victory through Said, Karl and/or JJ panning out. Hope that helps for the multi entry crew!
Good luck!
Comments