First edition of me writing up my thoughts and sharing some potential plays as we head into the UFC Vegas 50 event. I pull my initial data on the day of the fight so that odds are more solid than they would be 2 days ago.
The first thing I like to peek at is my dashboard with odds, ownership and visual leverage. On the left column, I see the fighters with the best odds up top and work down to find the best leverage (preferrably close to the top)
As of this writing, I dont see a ton of options at the top where the field is shying away. May Gillian or Dober at best, but this could change with ownership updates so check my twitter (@DFSedric) to see the latest.
On the right side of this view, I'm looking at fights from left to right to find which fights have the highest chance at points aka someone getting knocked out or submitted early. Fight number 6 (Pereira vs Silva) appear to be the most likely for that to occur. The only problem is there is no leverage on either fighter so you will need to pair them with someone with decent leverage for sure. 2nd most likely fight with a finish is Semelsberger vs Fletcher. Odds of Semelsberger winning with a finish are pretty high. Fletcher's are low, but come with leverage if you want to take that shot. The other intruiging thing about this fight is the pace. The lower the green line, the more punches are expected. Therefore I may go overweight on this fight.
As we get a look at our next chart, I am looking for value and leverage at the same time. If you look closely at our scatter plot on the left, we have Mckinney showing as a high value play in fight #5. He is an underdog at +137, and projecting to be owned by 42% of the field.
He would be the top value play on the slate and ownership is right there with him. You may have to make a call as to fade him because of ownership (high risk), add him to most if not all your lineups to gain leverage on the field (medium risk) or staying even with the field and having him in about half your lineups (low risk, low reward). Most slates I look for 3 underdogs to fill my lineups and seeing the options around him price wise, Im not too thrilled about those.
Take note of the greenest dots, as this is where you can see who the strongest projected leverage plays are. Right now, I'd suggest Dober, Robertson, Moutino, Karl Roberson, or Rountree as being your best bets to get different. Usually 1 or 2 of these guys is all it really takes.
Lastly I am looking at the top values on the right table. This value is my own calculation, not projection based. Semelsberger shows up here as well which means theres a chance I take extra shots on him in my lineup construction this week.
Good luck and if there are questions, find me on twitter!
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