Its a new week and a new chance to do something special in PGA. I am going to just set this up in case some questions come in about what plays make sense and which ones are fade worthy.
Odds and Situations
The guy with the clearest highest odds on the week is Tony Finau. The problem is he is showing slightly below the leverage line I use to pick my plays and therefore he is filtered out (but expecting around 28-30% ownership). He has 2 elite finishes at this tournament so it makes sense as to his ownership. But his price may be keeping him from showing up as an optimal play more than 22% of the time.
Core But Leveraged
Typically half of the guys shown here end up doing well so I will try and grab 3 of these names as my core plays this week. They check all the boxes for what I want in terms of a winning lineup. I'll likely side with those who have a recent number that is lower (Rai/Kim/Eckroat/Sigg) and see which ones present the best value.
Actual Wins vs Expected Wins
Its about time to start looking at this view again. No one has quite topped the chart as a 'play til he wins' number but Charlie Hoffman is approaching. If you have followed my page in the past, you know that this number has been predictive of the winner several times if you chase them til they hit.
Optimal vs Odds
There is a list of guyshere who are showing as optimal but not seeing ownership follow. Not all will be good plays but I think you can sprinkle them in based on the course. One thing I know is that the yardage on par 4s and par 5s averages as some of the longest, so driving distance is going to be key amongst those guys. If time permits I will review the course fits and update this page later.
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